WARN Act Layoffs in Pennsylvania

In-Depth Analysis: Layoffs in Pennsylvania

# Pennsylvania Layoff Analysis: WARN Notice Data Deep Dive

Executive Summary: Scale and Trajectory of Pennsylvania's Workforce Disruptions

Pennsylvania has experienced substantial employment volatility over the past quarter-century, with 3,816 WARN notices displacing 472,689 workers across the state. This figure represents a significant persistent challenge for the commonwealth's labor market, though the data reveals distinct cyclical patterns and emerging sectoral shifts that reshape how we understand the state's economic resilience.

The historical arc tells a story of two distinct Pennsylvania economies. From 2001 through 2019, the state averaged roughly 135 notices annually, affecting approximately 15,000 workers per year. This represented a relatively stable—if troubling—baseline of workforce churning tied to manufacturing consolidation, retail restructuring, and sector-specific pressures. However, the pandemic year of 2020 shattered this equilibrium. That single year generated 421 notices affecting 68,649 workers—a 290 percent increase in notice volume and a 357 percent spike in affected workers compared to the prior five-year average. The 2020 disruption alone accounts for nearly 15 percent of all workers affected across the entire dataset.

What distinguishes Pennsylvania's current trajectory from historical patterns is the persistence of elevated displacement activity post-pandemic. Rather than returning to pre-2020 baselines, the state has seen a structural shift toward higher layoff volumes. The 2024-2025 period shows 357 notices affecting 40,208 workers—substantially above historical norms and suggesting that forces beyond cyclical recession now shape Pennsylvania's employment landscape.

The Sectoral Architecture of Displacement: Healthcare Ascendant, Manufacturing Declining

The industry breakdown reveals a fundamental reordering of Pennsylvania's economic base over the period covered by these WARN notices. Healthcare emerges as the single largest driver of layoff notices, with 221 notices affecting 45,522 workers—nearly 10 percent of all workers displaced statewide. This appears counterintuitive given healthcare's reputation as a growing sector, but the data reflects consolidation dynamics, hospital system mergers, automation of administrative functions, and the shift from inpatient to outpatient care delivery. Major health systems have rationalized their workforce as electronic health record adoption, billing automation, and operational consolidation have reduced duplicative administrative roles.

Manufacturing, historically Pennsylvania's economic bedrock, ranks second with 270 notices but affects only 26,848 workers—substantially fewer per notice than healthcare. This reflects a fundamental transformation: the notices capture the final chapters of Pennsylvania's industrial era. Mid-sized manufacturing operations that once employed hundreds now shed dozens. The concentration of manufacturing WARN notices across electronics (Agere Systems with 22 notices and 3,253 workers), industrial equipment (Tyco Electronics with 12 notices affecting 1,788 workers), and specialized manufacturing reflects the relocation of production to lower-cost geographies and automation of remaining operations.

Transportation ranks third with 169 notices affecting 23,615 workers, driven substantially by airline restructuring and logistics consolidation. U.S. Airways, once Pennsylvania's largest employer based at Philadelphia International Airport, filed six WARN notices displacing 1,202 workers as the airline industry underwent post-9/11 restructuring and subsequent consolidations.

The retail sector tells an instructive story visible through the data's top employer list. Ames Department Stores filed 33 notices affecting 1,833 workers—the highest notice volume in the entire dataset—before bankruptcy and liquidation. Montgomery Ward (12 notices, 1,180 workers), Macy's (11 notices, 1,714 workers), and Boscov's (6 notices, 749 workers) collectively displaced thousands as e-commerce disrupted traditional brick-and-mortar retail. These retailers represent structural decline rather than cyclical downturns; store closures reflect permanent shifts in consumer purchasing behavior and are unlikely to be reversed.

Information & Technology generated 99 notices affecting 11,095 workers, with Agere Systems dominating this category. The presence of IT sector layoffs reflects not sector decline but rather consolidation and geography shifts—companies moving operations to lower-cost regions or pursuing offshore development.

Finance & Insurance shows 113 notices affecting 11,646 workers, with major notices from Bank of New York Mellon (6 notices, 305 workers), the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Pittsburgh Branch (6 notices, 831 workers), and Bank of America (6 notices, 454 workers). These represent the automation of back-office functions, branch consolidation, and the shift toward digital banking that has permanently reduced traditional financial sector employment.

The structural implication is clear: Pennsylvania's economy is shedding its traditional pillars—manufacturing, retail, and routine financial services—while sectors like healthcare grow in employment volume but are simultaneously consolidating operations and automating administrative functions. This creates an asymmetry where new jobs in healthcare and services often pay less and offer fewer benefits than displaced manufacturing positions.

Geographic Concentration: The Philadelphia-Pittsburgh Axis and Regional Vulnerability

The geographic concentration of layoffs reveals which Pennsylvania communities bear disproportionate adjustment burdens. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the state's two largest metros, account for 812 notices affecting 110,341 workers—nearly 23 percent of all affected workers despite representing roughly 30 percent of the state's population. This concentration is unsurprising given these metros' economic diversity, but it masks sharp sectoral variation within each region.

Philadelphia (581 notices, 78,021 workers) bears particular weight, reflecting its role as a regional financial, healthcare, and retail hub. The city hosted major operations for Bank of New York Mellon, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Pittsburgh Branch, U.S. Airways, and numerous healthcare systems undergoing consolidation. The sheer volume—averaging approximately 23 notices annually across the full time period—means Philadelphia's labor market faces constant adjustment pressure rather than discrete shock events.

Pittsburgh (231 notices, 32,320 workers) shows lower absolute volume but still represents significant displacement, concentrated heavily in healthcare consolidation (the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center system dominates western Pennsylvania employment) and legacy manufacturing closures.

Beyond these metropolitan centers, secondary cities show pronounced vulnerability. York (90 notices, 8,509 workers), Allentown (73 notices, 6,591 workers), and Erie (61 notices, 9,473 workers) all experienced layoff volumes disproportionate to their size, indicating that manufacturing-dependent smaller metros face structural headwinds without the economic diversification available to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Bethlehem recorded 48 notices affecting 10,923 workers, reflecting the Lehigh Valley's continued dependence on industrial employment and vulnerability to consolidation.

The geographic pattern suggests that Pennsylvania's adjustment burden falls most heavily on communities least equipped to absorb it. Smaller metros lack the diversified employer base, venture capital ecosystem, and educational institutions that enable rapid workforce retraining and new business formation. Workers displaced from manufacturing in York or Allentown face longer job search durations and greater likelihood of accepting lower-wage positions than their counterparts in Philadelphia.

The Dominant Employers: Structural Forces Behind Pennsylvania's Largest Displacements

The top employers filing WARN notices reveal the specific economic forces reshaping Pennsylvania. Ames Department Stores (33 notices, 1,833 workers) represents pure retail disruption—a regional department store chain that could not compete with Walmart, Target, and e-commerce platforms. Each notice marked another store closing; the cumulative effect was corporate liquidation. This is not a cyclical downturn but a permanent market share loss to superior distribution channels.

Agere Systems (22 notices, 3,253 workers) exemplifies semiconductor and specialized electronics manufacturing's vulnerability to offshore production and consolidation. The company, spun out from Lucent Technologies, ultimately was acquired by Broadcom, with Pennsylvania operations gradually relocated or consolidated.

Steris Corporation (22 notices, 325 workers) and Merck & Co. (7 notices, 1,916 workers) represent pharmaceutical and healthcare equipment manufacturing—sectors where Pennsylvania maintains significant presence. The notices suggest ongoing facility consolidation and automation rather than sector exit; these companies remain major state employers but with smaller workforces than historical peaks.

Tyco Electronics (12 notices, 1,788 workers) represents industrial electronics manufacturing, where Pennsylvania facilities compete globally with lower-cost jurisdictions. The company ultimately was absorbed into TE Connectivity, with Pennsylvania manufacturing rationalized as part of global supply chain optimization.

Hostess Brands (9 notices, 541 workers) represents food manufacturing consolidation, while First Student (9 notices, 766 workers) reflects school transportation contracting and route optimization reducing driver demand. These companies remain operational but with reduced Pennsylvania footprints.

The pattern across major employers is consistent: companies are not exiting Pennsylvania en masse but rather optimizing operations through facility consolidation, automation, offshore relocation, and acquisition-driven synergies. Each strategy independently reduces workforce demand; collectively they represent a fundamental shift toward leaner operations with lower Pennsylvania employment.

Historical Patterns: From Cyclical Disruption to Structural Transformation

The year-by-year breakdown reveals three distinct periods. From 2001 through 2008, Pennsylvania averaged 186 notices annually affecting 19,350 workers. This period captured the manufacturing decline initiated by post-9/11 recession, the 2001-2002 tech sector downturn's spillover effects into manufacturing, and the early financial crisis period. Notably, even in 2001—a recession year with significant corporate restructuring—the notice volume was 249 affecting 34,638 workers. This suggests that even moderate recessions generate substantial displacement when applied to an economy as large as Pennsylvania's.

The 2009-2019 period shows relative stabilization, with an average of 115 notices affecting roughly 13,000 workers annually. This decade began with the 2009 financial crisis (145 notices, 17,630 workers) but recovered to lower levels through the 2010s. The pre-pandemic decade suggests that structural forces—ongoing manufacturing decline, retail disruption, financial sector automation—generated a steady baseline of displacement even absent recession.

The 2020 pandemic year represents a categorical break. With 421 notices affecting 68,649 workers, it nearly matched the combined totals of 2018-2019 (235 notices, 28,145 workers). This reflected temporary closures of accommodation, food service, and discretionary retail, as well as accelerated closures of struggling chains. Notably, 2021-2022 showed sharp drops (55 and 45 notices respectively, affecting 8,946 and 7,244 workers), consistent with the rapid labor market recovery and tight labor market of 2021-2022.

However, 2023-2025 shows a concerning uptick. The 333 notices affecting 50,662 workers across these three years exceed most full-year totals from the pre-2020 baseline. This suggests either elevated underlying displacement masked by tight labor markets during 2021-2022, or new structural forces generating displacement. The pending 2026 data (40 notices, 6,964 workers at mid-year) offers insufficient evidence, but the trajectory suggests Pennsylvania's displacement baseline may have structurally shifted upward from the 2010s level.

Pennsylvania's Evolving Economic Structure: Sectoral Transition Amid Global Competition

Pennsylvania's WARN notice patterns must be understood within the state's broader economic transformation. Pennsylvania remains a top-10 U.S. state economy by nominal GDP, with approximately 6.2 million workers. The 472,689 workers affected by WARN notices across the full period represents approximately 7.6 percent of the current workforce, distributed across two and a half decades. While substantial, this figure reflects the reality that most Pennsylvania workers avoid displacement; however, the geographic and sectoral concentration means that some regions and industries have experienced far higher displacement rates.

The state's economic base has shifted from manufacturing dominance toward healthcare, education, professional services, and finance. This transition, while creating new employment, typically involves lower average wages in services compared to historical manufacturing compensation. A displaced steelworker earning $55,000 annually with full benefits faces lower reemployment wages in retail, food service, or administrative roles. This secular wage pressure, invisible in aggregate employment statistics, appears in workers' lived experience across Pennsylvania communities.

The healthcare sector's dominance in WARN notices despite being a growth sector reflects consolidation dynamics specific to healthcare economics. Hospital system mergers, driven by competitive pressure and administrative complexity, generate redundant positions in finance, human resources, materials management, and billing. Simultaneously, technological change—electronic health records, diagnostic automation, robotic surgery systems—reduces demand for certain clinical and administrative roles even as patient volumes grow. The result is a sector simultaneously growing total employment while generating frequent displacement events.

Pennsylvania's manufacturing base, while diminished from its 1970s peak, remains substantial. The state hosts significant pharmaceutical manufacturing (Merck, Johnson & Johnson), specialty chemicals, industrial equipment, and food processing. However, these facilities employ substantially fewer workers than historical analogs, having automated production and shifted to higher-value-added activities. The Agere Systems trajectory—from 22,000 employees at peak to eventual acquisition with minimal Pennsylvania footprint—illustrates this dynamic repeated across the industrial landscape.

Structural Drivers: Automation, Offshoring, Consolidation, and Demand Shifts

The WARN notices, taken collectively, reflect four powerful structural forces reshaping Pennsylvania's labor market. First, automation pervades all sectors. Manufacturing facilities employ fewer workers per unit of output through robotics and computer-controlled processes. Healthcare systems reduce administrative staff through digital systems. Retail operations have been decimated by e-commerce and supply chain automation. Financial institutions process transactions at a fraction of historical staffing levels. These are not temporary cyclical forces but permanent productivity improvements that reduce labor demand.

Second, offshoring and geographic arbitrage continue reshaping industrial geography. Tyco Electronics, Agere Systems, and other manufacturers have shifted production to Mexico, China, and Southeast Asia, where labor costs represent a fraction of Pennsylvania levels. While some companies maintain Pennsylvania operations for specialized, high-value-added production, the volume displacement has been severe.

Third, consolidation across sectors—retail, healthcare, finance, food processing—has generated systematic workforce reductions. When two hospital systems merge, redundant positions in finance, IT, and administration disappear. When retail chains consolidate under one corporate banner, duplicate regional offices close. These are not growth-related layoffs but rather efficiency-driven reductions in overlapping functions. The Ames Department Stores, Montgomery Ward, and Hostess Brands notices capture retail and food consolidation; healthcare system notices reflect the systematic rationalization occurring across hospital networks.

Fourth, demand shifts have permanently altered employment in certain sectors. E-commerce has eliminated thousands of retail clerk positions. Declining transit ridership has reduced transportation employment. School consolidation has reduced administrative positions in education. These demand shifts reflect consumer preferences and demographic changes that are unlikely to reverse.

The Road Ahead: Workers, Communities, and Policy Imperatives

Pennsylvania faces an employment landscape fundamentally different from the industrial commonwealth of previous generations. While unemployment rates and aggregate job growth statistics may appear healthy, the compositional shift toward lower-wage, less-stable service employment masks significant worker welfare challenges. A 55-year-old displaced manufacturing worker offered a $18-per-hour retail position experiences material income loss despite being technically "reemployed."

The geographic concentration of layoffs suggests that labor market adjustment assistance should be tailored to regional economic capacity. Communities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh possess sufficient economic diversity and educational institutions to facilitate workforce transitions. Smaller metros like York, Allentown, and Erie require more targeted intervention—sector-specific retraining programs, business recruitment incentives, and entrepreneurship support tailored to local asset bases.

The sectors generating most displacement—healthcare, manufacturing, retail, finance—will likely continue shedding workers through automation and consolidation. The policy question is not whether these disruptions will occur but rather how to enable worker transitions, support affected communities, and ensure that Pennsylvania's economic transition generates broadly shared prosperity rather than concentrated hardship in specific regions and demographic groups.