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Short seller signals — surfaced before they hit the tape

Mass layoffs, SEC Item 2.05 restructuring filings, and Chapter 11 petitions — cross-referenced into a single distress cascade. Built for activist short sellers, distressed credit desks, and research shops who need lead time on a position before the name is already ripping.

The Pre-Bankruptcy Cascade

Distressed names tend to leak signal along a predictable path. We surface each leg in near real-time, cross-reference it back to the ticker, and flag the cascade when multiple legs converge within 90 days.

Leg 1

WARN Notice Filed

State filing required 60+ days before mass layoff. Usually appears in a state portal days to weeks before press release.

Day 0
Leg 2

SEC 8-K Item 2.05

Material restructuring costs disclosure. Often includes impairment charges and severance figures that move the estimate model.

Day 0–30
Leg 3

8-K Item 1.03 / Ch. 11

Receivership, covenant breach, or Chapter 11 petition. PACER docket appears within hours of filing.

Day 30–180
Leg 4

Equity Re-rate

Sell-side cuts, forced selling, liquidity thinning. By this leg, most of the easy alpha is gone.

Day 60–365

See live cascade examples: Connected Signals →

What a Signal Looks Like

Critical — Score 9

Company X — WARN + 8-K + Ch. 11 within 60 days

WARN notice for 240 workers filed with CA EDD on day 0. SEC 8-K Item 2.05 filed day 14 disclosing $48M restructuring charge. Chapter 11 petition filed day 54 in SDNY. Composite distress score crossed 9.0 on day 14 — 40 days before the press release that cut the stock 62%.

Elevated — Score 6

Company Y — H-1B hire overlap with WARN

Company laid off 380 workers per WARN while simultaneously sponsoring 120 H-1B workers in the same SOC codes. Talent Displacement Index (TDI) flagged. Often precedes a management shake-up or quarter miss on labor cost guidance.

Moderate — Score 4

Sector cascade — Commercial real estate

8 office-REIT tenants filed WARN notices in 3 major metros within 60 days. Metro Contagion Score + Industry Domino Index both crossed threshold. Short candidate list generated automatically from the sector-wide signal.

Pre-bankruptcy — Score 8

Retail chain — SEC Item 2.04 covenant breach

Item 2.04 (acceleration of direct financial obligation) landed 3 weeks after a WARN notice for store-closure layoffs. Credit spreads widened within 5 days. Chapter 11 filed 71 days after the WARN notice.

Live Distress Signal — Top Names Right Now

Pulled in real-time from /api/risk-signal. Score ≥ 4 only. This is the same endpoint you'd be polling on a paid tier — here it is, live, so you can see what a typical day's short-candidate screen looks like.

Company Score Level Factors
Loading live signal…

Need tickers, webhook delivery, and backfill? See pricing or book a demo.

Pricing

Research Starter
$499/ month

Analyst desk with 1-2 short positions at a time. REST API, webhook alerts, all 5 distress indexes.

  • 5,000 API requests/day
  • All 6 datasets + 5 distress indexes
  • Webhook alerts on company matches
  • JSON / CSV / Parquet export
  • Company watchlist (100 names)
  • MCP server access for AI agents
Subscribe — $499/mo
Fund Annual Contract
$60,000/ year

For full hedge funds with multiple strategies. Everything in Activist Short plus fund-wide access and MNPI-aware contract.

  • Full hedge-fund annual contract
  • Custom webhook filters per strategy
  • One Standard Research Report included
  • 48h data SLA
  • Quarterly roadmap call
Hedge Fund Page →

API Endpoints You'll Use Most

GET /api/risk-signal
Bulk distress scoring across all companies with WARN activity in the last N days.
GET /api/risk-signal/company/{name}
Per-company cascade detail with WARN + SEC + bankruptcy + H-1B + LCA context.
GET /api/sec-filings
SEC 8-K filings filtered to Item 2.05, 1.03, 2.04, 5.02 — the restructuring + covenant subset.
GET /api/bankruptcies
Chapter 11 & 7 petitions — PACER + SEC + FJC sources, cross-referenced to WARN filings.
GET /api/market-pulse
Single-call snapshot of all 6 datasets with trend direction for sector rotation calls.
POST /api/webhooks
Register filters for WARN/SEC/bankruptcy/cascade events. Pushed as JSON to your endpoint.

Full docs: API Documentation →

Book a 15-minute demo

We'll walk through live cascade examples, show the webhook flow, and scope pricing to your desk.

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Data is for informational and research purposes only. Does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. All signal scores are algorithmic estimates from public government data. Past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes. WARN Firehose is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser. For a forwardable procurement/compliance summary, see Data Provenance & Compliance.