WARN Act Layoffs in New Hampshire

In-Depth Analysis: Layoffs in New Hampshire

# Economic Analysis of Layoffs in New Hampshire

Executive Summary

New Hampshire has experienced 112 WARN Act notices affecting 10,630 workers over the past 17 years, representing a substantial displacement wave that accelerated significantly after 2008. The data reveals a state economy undergoing profound structural transitions across its manufacturing base, healthcare sector, and knowledge industries. While the state's workforce adjustment patterns follow some national trends—particularly the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent manufacturing decline—New Hampshire's experiences distinctive vulnerabilities stemming from its dependence on a narrow set of large employers and geographic concentration in the Manchester-Nashua corridor.

The temporal distribution of notices tells a particularly revealing story. The period from 2010 to 2012 saw 31 notices affecting 3,551 workers, representing the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession. After a modest improvement through the mid-2010s, the economy deteriorated again, with 2020 alone generating 16 notices and displacing 1,177 workers—a spike driven by pandemic-induced disruptions across healthcare, education, and hospitality sectors. The volatility evident in this timeline suggests New Hampshire's economy operates with limited shock absorption capacity, making the state disproportionately vulnerable to sectoral disruptions and corporate restructuring decisions made by multinational firms headquartered elsewhere.

Industry Analysis: Sectoral Fragmentation and Structural Decline

The industry breakdown reveals a labor market experiencing simultaneous pressures across multiple sectors, though the distribution is highly uneven. Information & Technology companies have filed four notices affecting 724 workers, while Healthcare organizations account for nine notices and 728 workers. At first glance, these numbers appear comparable, but the composition and implications differ substantially.

Healthcare sector layoffs represent internal consolidation and operational efficiency measures rather than industry contraction. The nine notices include Dartmouth College's Geisel School of Medicine (389 workers), Wellpath Recovery Solutions LLC (170 workers), and various rehabilitation and ambulance services. These notices predominantly reflect administrative restructuring and the ongoing consolidation of healthcare delivery systems as larger hospital networks absorb smaller providers. The relatively stable demand for healthcare services in an aging demographic context means these layoffs accompany rather than precede hiring elsewhere in the sector, though with potential skill and geographic mismatches for displaced workers.

By contrast, Information & Technology layoffs signal more fundamental market pressures. Companies like Mammoth Tech (521 workers in a single notice) and ThermoFisher Scientific (2 notices, 189 workers total) represent high-wage employment destruction in precisely the sectors New Hampshire has attempted to develop as anchors for economic diversification. These layoffs typically reflect global supply chain optimization, automation implementation, and shifting investment priorities by multinational corporations. The loss of 521 workers at Mammoth Tech in a single action represents a catastrophic blow to any community's tax base and employment ecosystem.

Manufacturing, the traditional backbone of New Hampshire's economy, shows signs of managed decline rather than collapse. Five notices affecting 498 workers span companies including Thompson Center (306 workers), Saint-Gobain Performance Plastics Corporation (164 workers), and OSRAM Sylvania (139 workers). The manufacturing data conceals significant heterogeneity—some notices reflect automation-driven productivity improvements, while others indicate offshoring or strategic business exits. Eastern Mountain Sports, with two notices affecting 151 workers, exemplifies retail-adjacent manufacturing pressures from e-commerce disruption.

Education sector layoffs (three notices, 614 workers) center on Mount Washington College (185 workers), reflecting the broader crisis in for-profit higher education and demographic contraction in higher education demand. This category also includes layoffs by institutions like Dartmouth College, which typically occur during major capital reallocation or operational restructuring rather than financial distress.

The Accommodation & Food category encompasses the Balsams Grand Resort Hotel (310 workers), whose closure demonstrates how labor-intensive hospitality businesses face existential pressures from changing travel patterns and consolidation in resort management. The two notices in this category affecting 378 workers underscore the sector's structural fragility.

Geographic Concentration: The Manchester-Nashua Corridor Dominance

Geographic data expose a critical vulnerability in New Hampshire's economic structure. Manchester alone accounts for 22 notices and 2,103 workers—nearly 20 percent of all layoffs by volume and 19.8 percent of all affected workers. Nashua adds 13 notices and 1,003 workers. Combined, these two cities represent 35 notices and 3,106 workers, or 31.3 percent of all WARN-eligible layoffs in the state. This concentration in the south-central corridor reflects New Hampshire's economic geography, where population and corporate headquarters cluster along the Boston commuter shed.

The implication is grave: any major layoff in these two cities creates outsized labor market disruptions because the surrounding communities cannot absorb displaced workers through internal job creation. A layoff affecting 521 workers—as Mammoth Tech did—represents a city-level employment shock equivalent to losing a mid-sized employer permanently. The limited geographic diversification means workers cannot easily relocate within the state to find comparable employment.

Portsmouth, the state's port city and emerging tech hub, ranks third with eight notices and 593 workers. Its lower notice count relative to population suggests somewhat greater economic diversification and potentially more resilient employer bases. Hudson, Rochester, and Concord complete the top tier of affected communities, collectively accounting for 13 notices and 1,210 workers. Northern New Hampshire, encompassing the White Mountains and Lakes Region, appears significantly less affected by major WARN filings—a reflection of both smaller population centers and different economic structures based on tourism and seasonal employment.

This geography matters profoundly for workforce adjustment policy. Displaced workers in Manchester can theoretically commute to Boston, 90 minutes south, but only if they possess skills valued in Massachusetts labor markets and can manage extended commutes. Workers in smaller communities like Berlin or Peterborough face much starker choices: accept lower-wage work in local labor markets, undertake expensive retraining, or leave the state entirely. The concentration of layoffs in the southern corridor likely understates the actual economic disruption in smaller communities that depend on a single large employer.

Major Employers: Concentrated Risk and Corporate Restructuring

The top employers filing multiple WARN notices reveal structural patterns. Medtronic, Inc., a multinational medical device manufacturer, filed three separate notices affecting 264 workers across different years and facilities. As a $31 billion global company, Medtronic's New Hampshire layoffs reflect portfolio optimization and manufacturing consolidation decisions made in boardrooms thousands of miles away. Workers displaced by Medtronic face retraining challenges because the company represents cutting-edge medical technology—jobs difficult to replace in local labor markets.

Lowe's Home Centers, Inc. filed two notices affecting 277 workers total, exemplifying retail sector contraction driven by e-commerce disruption and store consolidation. As a national retailer facing intense Amazon competition, Lowe's layoffs in New Hampshire reflect rational cost-cutting but create severe hardship for workers whose retail employment rarely transfers to other sectors without substantial wage loss.

ThermoFisher Scientific, appearing twice in the top employers and again in the list with a third notice, affected at least 318 workers across multiple events. This $45+ billion life sciences company's presence in New Hampshire reflects the state's position in the biotechnology supply chain. Yet repeated layoffs suggest even sophisticated manufacturing operations face persistent cost pressures or strategic realignment needs that periodically eliminate positions.

The pattern across major employers indicates that New Hampshire hosts predominantly branch plants and subsidiary operations of multinational corporations rather than independent, locally-controlled enterprises. This structure creates systematic vulnerability: layoff decisions reflect global corporate strategy, not local economic conditions. When Aecom, a global engineering and consulting firm, filed a notice affecting 490 workers, that decision likely reflected global project portfolio shifts rather than any particular weakness in the New Hampshire market.

Rume Medical Group's two notices affecting zero workers represent a data anomaly suggesting either announced but subsequently canceled layoffs or administrative errors in the WARN database—but the pattern of filing even cancelled layoffs demonstrates how seriously firms take advance notification obligations.

Historical Trajectories: Cyclicality and Structural Change

The year-by-year data reveal distinct economic phases. The 2009-2012 period shows 35 notices affecting 4,037 workers—a sharp recession-driven concentration. This aligns perfectly with the Great Recession's timeline, when manufacturing declined precipitously and financial crisis aftershocks propagated through supply chains. The peak of 12 notices in 2011 marks the lingering jobs crisis more than two years after the recession officially ended.

The subsequent 2013-2019 period shows notable moderation, with 28 notices affecting 2,794 workers across seven years. This represents genuine improvement in labor market conditions, suggesting the state recovery proceeded reasonably well through the 2010s expansion. However, even this "good" period included significant disruptions—seven notices in both 2016 and 2019 suggest the recovery remained uneven, with some sectors and employers continuing contraction even as others expanded.

The 2020 surge is particularly instructive. Sixteen notices affecting 1,177 workers represent pandemic-specific shocks concentrated in healthcare, education, and hospitality. The 2021 rebound to only three notices suggests these were temporary pandemic disruptions rather than permanent structural change. However, 2022 saw renewed deterioration with six notices affecting 792 workers, and 2023-2024 data showing four and seven notices respectively suggest ongoing volatility rather than stable recovery.

The 2025 figure of four notices affecting 224 workers provides insufficient data for meaningful analysis but indicates the current year has not yet reversed concerning trends. The most worrying pattern is the volatility itself: the state experiences either crisis-level disruptions or moderate activity, with little evidence of stable, low-disruption equilibrium. This volatility impedes workforce development planning and discourages long-term employer commitment to training and skill development.

Economic Context: New Hampshire's Structural Position

New Hampshire's economy has historically depended on four pillars: manufacturing (precision machinery, electronics, textiles), healthcare and medical devices, education, and tourism. The WARN data show stress across all four. Manufacturing remains present but diminished; healthcare shows internal restructuring rather than growth; education faces enrollment and financial pressures; tourism-adjacent hospitality collapsed dramatically in 2020.

The state's median household income of approximately $87,000 ranks among the nation's highest, suggesting a relatively affluent population. However, this aggregated statistic masks significant stratification. The concentration of professional employment in the Manchester-Nashua corridor and upper-income commuter communities contrasts with lower wages in rural areas and smaller cities. Layoffs disproportionately displace workers in lower-wage roles—retail, hospitality, healthcare support—who have fewer alternative employment opportunities.

New Hampshire's lack of a state income tax creates particular budget pressures during downturns, as the state relies heavily on property taxes and business taxes. Large layoffs reduce tax revenue precisely when displaced workers most need government services, creating fiscal strain. The state's dependence on relatively few large employers magnifies this effect: a single large layoff can materially affect state finances.

The state's position within the Boston metropolitan economic zone creates both advantages and vulnerabilities. Workers can theoretically access Boston's larger labor market, but commuting costs and geography limit this option for most. Conversely, New Hampshire's lower real estate costs relative to Massachusetts historically attracted corporate investment, but this advantage has diminished as remote work expands and younger workers increasingly tolerate or prefer dense urban environments.

Forward-Looking Assessment: Trajectories and Emerging Pressures

Several emerging patterns suggest New Hampshire faces intensifying workforce adjustment pressures over the coming years. First, the Information & Technology sector shows clear signs of rationalization after years of rapid expansion. Companies like Mammoth Tech and ThermoFisher Scientific appear to have overexpanded relative to sustainable operating requirements, and further consolidation seems probable. Second, Healthcare sector restructuring will likely accelerate as telehealth adoption, consolidation, and artificial intelligence implementation reshape clinical and administrative roles.

Third, the absence of significant Transportation employment displacement so far may reflect limited WARN filings rather than actual stability. As autonomous vehicle technologies mature and logistics optimization accelerates, major disruptions in this sector become increasingly probable. Fourth, Manufacturing employment in New Hampshire will continue slow attrition as remaining facilities face automation and international competition.

For workers and job seekers, the immediate imperative involves developing portable skills that transfer across employers rather than firm-specific expertise. The state's demonstrated inability to retain large employers for extended periods means workers should assume mid-career transitions will be necessary. Community colleges and workforce development programs should shift toward rapidly retrainable skill clusters—healthcare certifications, IT fundamentals, skilled trades.

For policymakers, the data argue for intentional geographic diversification strategies. The concentration of layoffs in Manchester and Nashua necessitates deliberate investment in economic development in underrepresented regions. The reliance on multinational branch plants suggests New Hampshire should cultivate indigenous entrepreneurship and smaller employer development rather than continually recruiting distant corporate investment. Additionally, the state's high volatility in WARN notices argues for robust rapid response team funding and layoff aversion grants that make relocation more expensive for firms considering it.

The 17-year WARN dataset reveals a state economy fundamentally restructuring, with winners and losers increasingly diverging by sector and geography. New Hampshire enters the next phase of labor market evolution without obvious economic anchors to prevent further adjustment volatility.