WARN Act Layoffs in New Jersey

In-Depth Analysis: Layoffs in New Jersey

# Economic Analysis of Layoffs in New Jersey

Executive Summary: Scale and Significance of New Jersey's Workforce Disruption

New Jersey has experienced substantial labor market turbulence over the past two decades, with 3,282 WARN Act notices filed affecting 451,186 workers since 2004. This aggregate figure understates the true disruption, however, because it captures only employers with 100 or more affected workers—meaning the actual number of job losses exceeds half a million when accounting for smaller layoffs outside the WARN threshold. The trajectory reveals not a steady decline but a volatile pattern punctuated by catastrophic shocks. The 2020 pandemic year stands as the most disruptive single period on record, with 417 notices affecting 76,949 workers—nearly 17 percent of all workers displaced over the entire 22-year period compressed into a single year. This concentration underscores New Jersey's vulnerability to systemic economic shocks and raises critical questions about whether the state's economy has successfully diversified away from volatile employment bases.

The data through 2025 suggests the state has not returned to pre-pandemic volatility levels, though the recent trajectory remains concerning. The 2024-2025 biennium recorded 426 notices affecting 54,548 workers, indicating persistent instability. Viewed in historical context, current layoff notice rates remain elevated relative to the 2011-2014 period, when the state averaged approximately 95 notices annually, but well below the panic conditions of 2015 (261 notices) and the pandemic crisis of 2020. For New Jersey's approximately 4.2 million employed persons, 451,186 affected workers represents roughly 10.7 percent of the total employed base—a figure that, while not catastrophic on its face, concentrated in specific industries and geographies, creates genuine economic hardship for affected workers and destabilizes regional labor markets.

Industry Concentration: Healthcare, Transportation, and Structural Decline

New Jersey's layoff patterns reveal an economy in sectoral transition, with three industries accounting for 58 percent of all workers displaced: Healthcare, Transportation, and Manufacturing. The Healthcare industry dominates this hierarchy with 221 notices affecting 44,888 workers—nearly 10 percent of all displacement over the period. This seemingly counterintuitive pattern reflects the sector's massive scale in New Jersey combined with technological disruption and consolidation pressures. The prominence of Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation (29 notices, 3,205 workers) and Bristol Myers Squibb and its variants (32 notices combined, 4,887 workers) indicates that pharmaceutical manufacturing—historically one of New Jersey's premier industries—faces structural headwinds. The state's pharmaceutical corridor, traditionally centered in the northern pharmaceutical belt, has undergone continuous consolidation as major firms have merged, closed redundant research facilities, and shifted production overseas. These are not cyclical layoffs but permanent capacity reductions accompanying industry consolidation.

The Transportation industry presents a more puzzling pattern: 93 notices displaced 44,522 workers, nearly equaling healthcare's impact. This volume appears disproportionate given transportation's traditional role in the state, and warrants scrutiny. The aggregate figures suggest major disruptions in ground transportation, likely reflecting the decline of regional trucking operations, port-related employment displacements, and the continued contraction of Verizon (8 notices, 4,606 workers) and AT&T (17 notices, 533 workers)—telecommunications firms historically classified in some datasets as transportation or communications. The data classification may obscure meaningful sector boundaries, but the core narrative remains: traditional transportation and logistics firms have shed significant capacity, reflecting automation pressures and the consolidation of supply chain networks.

Manufacturing represents the third pillar of displacement, with 174 notices affecting 14,345 workers. Unlike healthcare and transportation, manufacturing's decline in New Jersey reflects a well-documented historical pattern: offshoring of production, automation of remaining domestic operations, and the state's gradual transition away from goods production toward services. The presence of companies like Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics Inc (8 notices, 1,088 workers) and smaller industrial employers indicates that this sector is not defunct but fundamentally restructured, with only highly specialized or capital-intensive operations remaining viable in New Jersey's high-cost environment.

Retail and accommodation industries collectively displaced 23,577 workers across 153 notices, reflecting both cyclical demand fluctuations and structural retail decline. The presence of Walmart (16 notices, 3,683 workers) and Bed Bath & Beyond (8 notices, 1,317 workers) underscores how major retailers have rationalized store networks, compressed labor forces through automation (self-checkout systems, inventory robotics), and responded to e-commerce competition by closing underperforming locations. The Retail industry notices cluster heavily around 2020-2023, suggesting pandemic-accelerated format shifts rather than pre-existing deterioration.

Information and Technology, despite popular narratives about tech sector growth, generated only 72 notices affecting 6,560 workers—a modest figure suggesting either that tech employment disruptions occur outside the WARN threshold or that New Jersey's tech sector remains concentrated in specific high-growth nodes rather than distributed across the state. The notable absence of major tech firm layoff notices (beyond scattered finance tech operations) indicates that major technology employers have not undergone significant workforce reductions in the state, unlike their activity in California and other traditional tech hubs.

Geographic Concentration: Urban Centers and Regional Vulnerability

New Jersey's layoff distribution reveals severe geographic concentration in a handful of urban and suburban nodes, creating distinct zones of labor market stress. Newark stands as the singular epicenter of displacement with 133 notices affecting 41,059 workers—more than 9 percent of the state's total displaced workers concentrated in a single municipality. This concentration reflects Newark's historical role as a manufacturing and logistics hub and its continued function as a regional financial services center. Jersey City follows with 119 notices affecting 19,892 workers, similarly concentrated due to its position as a financial services and transportation nexus, particularly its port operations and Hudson River waterfront development.

Together, Newark and Jersey City account for 252 notices and 60,951 displaced workers—13.5 percent of the entire state's layoff burden—creating a crisis-level concentration of labor market disruption in two municipalities. This pattern carries profound implications for municipal tax bases, unemployment insurance obligations, and workforce retraining infrastructure. Both cities have struggled with post-industrial economic transition; heavy layoff concentration may overwhelm local social services and workforce development systems designed for more dispersed displacement.

The secondary tier of affected cities—Parsippany (71 notices, 7,898 workers), Edison (63 notices, 7,950 workers), and Secaucus (49 notices, 7,364 workers)—represents the state's pharmaceutical and corporate office corridor. These suburban communities, which attracted major pharmaceutical and corporate headquarters in the 1970s and 1980s as companies fled Newark and other urban centers, now face the consequences of industry consolidation and the post-pandemic shift toward remote work. The displacement of 23,212 workers across these three municipalities (representing 5.1 percent of state total) indicates that the suburban office parks and manufacturing complexes that once symbolized New Jersey's prosperity now function as centers of job destruction rather than creation.

Atlantic City presents a distinct case: 48 notices displaced 31,723 workers—a concentration representing nearly 7 percent of the state's total displacement. This figure reflects the casino gaming industry's structural crisis. Atlantic City's casino sector, which surged in the 1980s and 1990s as a major employment base, has faced sustained decline due to regional casino expansion in Pennsylvania, New York, and Connecticut, which cannibalized Atlantic City's market share. The COVID-19 pandemic, combined with secular shifts away from destination gambling, accelerated this decline. For Atlantic City, which depends on casino employment for a substantial portion of its economic base, these layoffs represent not cyclical adjustment but permanent loss of a defining industry.

Smaller but notable concentrations appear in East Hanover (47 notices, 5,194 workers), Bridgewater (37 notices, 4,663 workers), and Wayne (34 notices, 4,688 workers)—all communities hosting major pharmaceutical, healthcare, or corporate offices. The geographic pattern is unmistakable: New Jersey's layoff burden concentrates in the pharmaceutical corridor (northern/central counties), port and logistics hubs (northern urban areas), and hospitality centers (Atlantic City), leaving significant portions of the state's southern and shore counties relatively less affected.

Dominant Employers and Sectoral Narratives

The companies filing the most WARN notices offer granular insight into the forces reshaping New Jersey's employment base. The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company, filing 33 notices affecting 3,293 workers, represents a retail grocery firm that once dominated American supermarkets but now operates a shadow of its former scale. A&P's sustained presence on the list reflects its survival as a regional operator, but the high number of separate notices indicates rolling closures and restructuring rather than sudden collapse—evidence of a firm in managed decline.

Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation (29 notices, 3,205 workers) and the various Bristol Myers Squibb entities (effectively 32 notices, 4,887 workers combined) tell a pharmaceutical consolidation story. These firms have undergone multiple mergers, divestitures, and facility rationalizations over the past two decades. The specific timing of individual notices may reflect post-acquisition redundancy elimination, research program terminations, or manufacturing optimization. What matters is the cumulative effect: two of the state's most historically prominent pharmaceutical employers have continuously reduced headcount despite maintaining significant New Jersey operations. This pattern indicates that the pharmaceutical industry, despite remaining headquartered in New Jersey, no longer functions as an engine of employment growth.

Walmart (16 notices, 3,683 workers), Bed Bath & Beyond (8 notices, 1,317 workers), and Sears (8 notices, 427 workers) exemplify retail sector consolidation. These firms did not relocate operations or fundamentally shrink—rather, they optimized store networks, closed unprofitable locations, and reduced corporate overhead. The notices span years 2006-2021, indicating that retail rationalization occurred gradually rather than as a single shock. HMSHost (18 notices, 1,251 workers), a travel center and airport food service operator, similarly reflects consolidation within hospitality service contracting.

The telecommunications firms AT&T (17 notices, 533 workers), Verizon (8 notices, 4,606 workers), and Cingular Wireless (11 notices, 584 workers) represent another narrative: the declining labor intensity of communications infrastructure. These firms did not lose customers; rather, technological substitution (automated customer service, network virtualization, software-defined systems) reduced the workforce required to serve a stable or growing customer base. Modern telecommunications operates as a capital-intensive rather than labor-intensive business.

Amazon (10 notices, 1,481 workers), despite prominent corporate expansion in New Jersey in recent years, appears with modest frequency and worker counts—suggesting either that Amazon's New Jersey expansion occurred via new facility openings (below WARN thresholds) rather than acquisitions of existing operations, or that the firm has not undergone major contractions. The modest displacement from this firm contrasts sharply with its growth profile, indicating structural hiring that more than offset any localized reductions.

JP Morgan Chase (11 notices, 804 workers) and financial services firms broadly reflect post-2008 crisis consolidation and the ongoing shift toward automated financial services. Finance sector displacement (97 notices, 8,570 workers) concentrates in back-office operations—data processing, accounting, administration—functions vulnerable to automation and offshore location.

Historical Trajectory: Crisis Points and Structural Shifts

New Jersey's layoff history divides into distinct eras, each shaped by different economic forces. The 2004-2007 period, encompassing the early-2000s tech recovery and housing bubble expansion, averaged 95 notices annually with 14,430 affected workers per year. This baseline likely represents structural rationalization and cyclical adjustment across a functioning labor market. The 2008-2009 financial crisis disrupted this baseline catastrophically: 2008 recorded 139 notices and 22,411 workers, a 55 percent increase in notice volume and 55 percent increase in affected workers. The 2009 aftermath continued this elevation with 130 notices affecting 16,249 workers. This two-year crisis displaced 38,660 workers—nearly 8.6 percent of the entire 22-year total compressed into 24 months. The state's unemployment rate peaked above 10 percent, and recovery proved protracted.

The 2010-2014 period shows partial recovery to pre-crisis baselines, averaging 98 notices and 15,391 affected workers annually. Notably, 2013 represents the lowest point in the entire dataset with only 71 notices and 9,275 workers, suggesting a genuine labor market tightening and reduced corporate restructuring activity. This moment, roughly four years post-crisis, appeared to mark recovery.

Then came an inexplicable surge: 2015 recorded 261 notices affecting 27,846 workers—a 368 percent increase in notice volume compared to 2014 and 200 percent increase in affected workers. No single industry or company drove this anomaly; rather, it reflected widespread corporate restructuring across multiple sectors. The 2015 spike remains unexplained in the broader economic record, as this period coincided with strengthening employment nationally and falling unemployment. Possible explanations include a wave of M&A-related redundancy eliminations, oil price collapse impacts (affecting logistics and petrochemical sectors), or data recording artifacts, but no definitive cause appears in the economic record.

Recovery from the 2015 spike was incomplete. The 2016-2019 period averaged 140 notices and 16,544 affected workers annually—elevated compared to the 2010-2014 baseline but below 2015 peaks. Then came the defining shock: 2020, with 417 notices and 76,949 affected workers. This single year represents 2.6 times the 2008 financial crisis annual peak. The pandemic eliminated demand in hospitality, forced corporate restructuring across multiple sectors, and drove unprecedented numbers of simultaneous WARN filings. The 2020 crisis was qualitatively distinct from the 2008 financial crisis: it reflected demand destruction in specific sectors (hospitality, tourism, entertainment) rather than systemic financial system failure, yet its employment impact proved comparable or worse.

The post-pandemic recovery has been gradual and incomplete. 2021 recorded 107 notices affecting 19,910 workers—a sharp drop from 2020 but still elevated relative to pre-pandemic baselines. The 2022 figure represents the lowest point since 2013 with 56 notices and 5,141 workers, suggesting genuine recovery. However, 2023-2025 show a concerning reversal: 231 notices in 2023, 204 in 2024, and 222 in 2025, with affected workers averaging 24,867 annually. This recent elevation exceeds all pre-pandemic years except 2008, 2014, and 2015. The state appears to have entered a new phase of elevated baseline restructuring, with notices running at 200+ annually—nearly double the 2010-2014 average.

The historical pattern indicates that New Jersey's economy cycles between relatively stable periods (averaging 95-100 notices annually) and crisis/restructuring periods (150-300+ notices) driven by sectoral shocks, recessions, or consolidation waves. The state lacks mechanisms to prevent major cyclical employment disruptions and appears structurally vulnerable to aggregate shocks.

Economic Context: New Jersey's Structural Position

New Jersey occupies a unique position in the American economy as a densely populated, high-cost state proximate to major financial and population centers but lacking the scale or sectoral diversity of New York or California. The state's historical economic base rested on four pillars: pharmaceutical and chemical manufacturing, port and logistics operations, financial services, and hospitality (particularly Atlantic City gaming). Over the 22-year WARN notice period, each of these pillars has eroded.

Pharmaceutical manufacturing, once employing tens of thousands and headquartering major multinational firms, now primarily functions as an administrative and research location for companies that manufacture elsewhere. The consolidation of Novartis, Bristol Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson, and Merck—all major New Jersey pharmaceutical employers showing repeated WARN notices—reflects industry consolidation at the global scale. New Jersey firms no longer need New Jersey employees to maintain pharmaceutical operations; intellectual property and corporate functions can remain while manufacturing shifts to lower-cost geographies.

Port operations, historically a major employer centered in Newark and surrounding areas, have undergone containerization and automation. The shift to mega-container vessels and automated terminal operations reduced the per-ton labor requirement dramatically. Port employment, which once employed tens of thousands of longshoremen and logistical workers directly, now concentrates in a smaller, more specialized workforce. The transportation industry's high displacement (44,522 workers) likely reflects this secular decline compounded by cyclical disruptions.

Financial services, historically concentrated in Newark before the post-1970s migration to New York, has undergone continuous automation. Back-office operations, data processing, and customer service—functions that once employed thousands—now operate through centralized, automated systems. The recurring presence of JP Morgan Chase and other financial firms on the WARN list reflects ongoing back-office consolidation.

Atlantic City gaming, which from the 1980s onward provided alternative employment for workers displaced from manufacturing and port operations, faces secular decline as regional casinos (Pennsylvania's casinos particularly cannibalized Atlantic City's market) captured market share. The 31,723 workers displaced from Atlantic City represent near-terminal decline of this employment source.

What remains in New Jersey's employment base? Professional services, healthcare delivery (as opposed to pharmaceutical manufacturing), education, government, and logistics for the tri-state region. The state has not successfully retrained or replaced employment lost from pharmaceutical manufacturing and port operations with comparable-wage employment. Most new job creation occurs in lower-wage hospitality and services, insufficient to replace middle-skill jobs lost.

Outlook: Structural Headwinds and Policy Imperatives

New Jersey faces a labor market requiring fundamental rather than marginal adjustment. The recent elevation of WARN notices (200+ annually in 2023-2025) suggests that 2022 represented a temporary pause rather than a genuine structural shift. Employers continue to rationalize workforces, consolidate operations, and substitute capital for labor at elevated rates.

Several structural forces will likely persist. First, pharmaceutical and healthcare firms headquartered or operating in New Jersey will continue optimizing operations, likely with further employment reductions. The industry's shift toward specialty pharmaceuticals and biologics requires fewer manufacturing workers and more concentrated scientific talent. Consolidation will continue as firms seek scale economies and portfolio optimization. New Jersey will retain significant pharmaceutical sector presence but with diminishing employment.

Second, port automation will accelerate. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey continues implementing automated systems and mega-container handling infrastructure. Further employment reductions appear inevitable unless counterbalancing growth occurs in logistics support services. Workers displaced from traditional port work lack straightforward pathways into competing-wage replacement employment.

Third, telecommunications and financial services will further substitute capital for labor. Remote work acceleration post-pandemic may actually reduce New Jersey's competitive advantage for financial back-office operations, as firms no longer require dense clustering in the tri-state region. Dispersed, lower-cost locations become viable. This threatens the sustainability of financial services employment.

Fourth, retail automation and consolidation will continue. Consumer preference shifts toward e-commerce and shrinking brick-and-mortar