WARN Act Layoffs in Washington

In-Depth Analysis: Layoffs in Washington

# Washington State Layoff Analysis: WARN Notice Trends and Economic Implications

Executive Summary: Scale and Trajectory

Washington State has experienced 1,933 WARN notices affecting 257,741 workers over the period covered in this dataset—a figure that warrants serious attention from policymakers and workers alike. The state's layoff activity reveals a volatile trajectory punctuated by two catastrophic years: 2020, when the pandemic triggered 396 notices displacing 47,103 workers, and 2025, which has already generated 323 notices affecting 48,753 workers. This means that just two years account for roughly 37 percent of all WARN notices and 37 percent of all affected workers across the entire period. The 2025 surge represents a particularly acute concern, given that the year is still in progress and the notice count already approaches pandemic-era levels. Compared to the pre-pandemic baseline of roughly 50–80 notices annually affecting 5,000–11,000 workers, Washington is experiencing layoff intensity that suggests structural economic headwinds extending well beyond cyclical adjustment.

The composition of layoff notices—777 marked as "Layoff," 566 as "Closure," and 590 as "Unknown"—indicates that Washington is witnessing permanent workforce reductions alongside facility shutdowns. Closures account for 29 percent of notices, signaling not merely workforce rightsizing but the exit of entire operations from the state. This distinction matters significantly for displaced workers and communities, as closures often eliminate entire job categories within a region rather than consolidating or reducing existing positions.

Industry Analysis: The Concentration of Displacement

The Healthcare sector leads in raw notice volume with 96 notices affecting 8,569 workers, followed by Information & Technology with 67 notices and 6,044 workers. Yet this ranking obscures the true economic weight of technology-driven layoffs. When examining workers affected per notice—a metric that captures the scale of individual displacement events—Agriculture emerges as the most severe driver, with 26 notices displacing 10,374 workers. This yields an average of 399 workers per notice, substantially exceeding every other sector. Transportation similarly shows elevated per-notice displacement at an average of 143 workers, while Healthcare averages 89 workers per notice.

The Manufacturing sector, long a cornerstone of Washington's economy, reflects the region's economic fragility. With 63 notices and 4,655 workers affected, manufacturing displacement persists as a structural problem. The sector's presence in the data is driven largely by Boeing, whose 75 WARN notices account for 22,938 workers—representing 9 percent of all Washington layoffs and nearly half of all manufacturing-related displacement. Boeing's outsized footprint underscores the danger of over-reliance on single employers in advanced manufacturing.

Information & Technology, despite its smaller total displacement count, warrants careful scrutiny. The 67 notices in this sector reflect a high-velocity churn inconsistent with steady-state operations. This pattern aligns with well-documented trends in tech labor markets: rapid expansion followed by sharp contraction, often driven by unrealistic growth projections, capital availability cycles, and strategic pivots. Microsoft alone has filed 34 notices affecting 11,302 workers, while Amazon has generated 15 notices displacing 9,920 workers. Together, these two companies represent 23 percent of all information technology layoffs in the state and roughly 8 percent of Washington's total WARN-reported displacement.

The persistence of Accommodation & Food Services layoffs (53 notices, 4,956 workers) reflects ongoing structural challenges in hospitality and food service labor markets. These sectors operate on thin margins, vulnerability to demand shocks, and heavy reliance on entry-level, non-unionized labor. The presence of HMSHost (11 notices, 927 workers), Hyatt (11 notices, 209 workers), and Jack in the Box (7 notices, 39 workers) suggests that even branded, relatively stable hospitality operators are shedding labor, likely due to automation, operational consolidation, and reduced travel/dining volumes compared to peak periods.

Retail displacement, reflected in 34 notices affecting 3,010 workers, continues the sector's long-term contraction. Walmart, Fred Meyer, Haggen Food & Pharmacy, and Macy's collectively account for 39 notices and 4,624 workers—more than the total retail category reports, indicating that the retail notices derive almost entirely from major chain consolidations and store closures rather than numerous small retailers.

Geographic Concentration: The Puget Sound Corridor Dominance

Washington's layoff burden concentrates overwhelmingly in the Puget Sound region, with Seattle alone accounting for 321 notices affecting 54,837 workers—21 percent of all notices and 21 percent of all affected workers. This level of concentration signals that Washington's economic shock is geographically non-random; it concentrates in the state's most productive, highest-wage labor market. The implication is significant: while absolute displacement numbers are largest in Seattle, the percentage impact on the regional labor market may be less severe than equivalent numbers would be in smaller metros where fewer alternative employment opportunities exist.

The secondary tech hub of Redmond experiences 61 notices affecting 15,629 workers. Combined with Bellevue (101 notices, 10,023 workers) and Bothell (85 notices, 4,917 workers), the Eastside corridor absorbs 247 notices and 30,569 workers. Adding Seattle and Puget Sound region figures yields roughly 625 notices and 98,074 workers concentrated in the greater Seattle metro area and immediate vicinity. This represents 32 percent of all WARN notices and 38 percent of all affected workers, confirming that the tech-heavy Puget Sound region is the epicenter of Washington's current labor market distress.

Everett, home to Boeing's massive manufacturing complex, shows 37 notices and 4,233 workers displaced. Given Boeing's 75 total notices and 22,938 affected workers statewide, and assuming disproportionate concentration in Everett, the company likely accounts for 30–40 percent of Everett's WARN notices. This dependency relationship illustrates the vulnerability of aerospace-dependent communities to large prime contractor volatility.

Southeastern Washington, represented by Spokane with 36 notices and 3,537 workers, and Yakima with 24 notices and 7,953 workers, shows material but lower displacement volumes than western Washington. Yakima's notably high workers-per-notice ratio (331) again reflects Agriculture sector consolidations affecting that region. The east-west divide in Washington's layoff burden mirrors the broader economic divergence between the tech-dominated and globally connected west and the agriculture, energy, and smaller-scale manufacturing-oriented east.

Major Employers: Concentration and Sectoral Patterns

The top five employers filing WARN notices—Boeing (75 notices, 22,938 workers), Microsoft (34 notices, 11,302 workers), Amazon (15 notices, 9,920 workers), Cingular Wireless (25 notices, 900 workers), and ICOS Corporation (23 notices, 812 workers)—collectively account for 172 notices and 45,972 workers. This represents 9 percent of all notices but 18 percent of all affected workers. The concentration is even sharper when considering that Boeing, Microsoft, and Amazon alone represent 124 notices and 44,160 workers.

Boeing's dominance in Washington's layoff data reflects the company's position as the state's largest private employer and its acute cyclical sensitivity. The 75 notices suggest repeated workforce adjustments across different divisions, product lines, and locations. Boeing's struggles stem from a combination of factors: the 737 MAX crisis and subsequent production halt, pandemic-driven commercial aviation contraction, increased defense spending that nonetheless failed to offset commercial losses, and supply chain disruptions. The company's reliance on manufacturing and assembly labor—relatively immobile, location-specific employment—means that layoffs hit communities more severely than equivalent tech sector reductions, where skills transfer more readily.

Microsoft and Amazon's substantial but less-dominant presence in the data reflects a different dynamic. These companies have executed numerous smaller adjustments (averaging 333 and 661 workers per notice, respectively) rather than the massive consolidations Boeing undertakes. This pattern aligns with tech industry norms of frequent organizational restructuring, which distribute displacement across multiple notices and locations rather than concentrating it in single events. Microsoft's layoffs, particularly the January 2023 reduction of 10,000 positions announced simultaneously with 2025 notices, reflect overcorrection from pandemic hiring binges.

Cingular Wireless (now AT&T Mobility), with 25 notices and 900 workers, represents the telecom sector's continued workforce compression due to automation, network consolidation, and labor-reducing technology upgrades. Similarly, T-Mobile (7 notices, 1,046 workers) reflects ongoing consolidation in wireless telecommunications following industry mergers.

The presence of YMCA of Greater Seattle with 7 notices and 3,623 workers—the largest single nonprofit in the data—illustrates pandemic aftereffects on social services. The YMCA's 2020–2021 facility closures and membership revenue collapses triggered substantial workforce reductions that persisted across multiple notice cycles. Likewise, Providence Health & Services (7 notices, 188 workers) and Virginia Mason Franciscan (7 notices, 29 workers) reflect healthcare system consolidations and operational adjustments in the Pacific Northwest's competitive health services market.

Agricultural processors and food producers appear multiple times: Haggen Food & Pharmacy (10 notices, 1,492 workers) and Aramark (10 notices, 1,223 workers) highlight the food and agricultural supply chain's vulnerability to consolidation, mechanization, and labor-cost pressures. Hostess Brands (10 notices, 238 workers) reflects broader consolidation in snack food manufacturing, while Katerra (7 notices, 334 workers)—a failed modular construction startup—illustrates the volatility of venture-capital-dependent manufacturing ventures.

Historical Trajectory: Escalation and Volatility

Annual WARN notice data reveals three distinct periods in Washington's recent labor market history. From 2004 through 2009, annual notices ranged from 42 to 72, with affected workers between 4,767 and 11,725. This period captured the pre-financial crisis baseline (2004–2007) and the initial financial crisis response (2008–2009). The 2008 surge (66 notices, 11,725 workers) and 2009 spike (72 notices, 10,496 workers) reflect recession-driven adjustments.

The recovery period of 2010–2019 shows lower notice volumes. Annual notices averaged roughly 50 with 5,000–8,000 affected workers, suggesting a return to equilibrium after the Great Recession. However, the absence of a sustained decline toward zero indicates that Washington's layoff baseline remained elevated relative to pre-2008 levels, suggesting that the recovery was incomplete and structural labor market pressures persisted.

The pandemic shock of 2020 generated 396 notices affecting 47,103 workers—the single largest year in the dataset. This represented a ninefold increase in notices from the 2019 baseline of 99 notices. The 2021 recovery proved premature, with only 46 notices affecting 3,915 workers, indicating rapid rehiring in hospitality, retail, and food services as pandemic restrictions eased. This rebound reversed in 2022 and 2023, with 116 notices in 2023 affecting 21,868 workers.

The 2024–2025 period represents the most concerning phase. With 80 notices in 2024 (12,512 workers) and already 323 notices in 2025 (48,753 workers), Washington is experiencing a second major shock within five years. The timing—occurring despite the absence of pandemic-level public health restrictions or obvious financial crisis indicators—suggests that the underlying drivers are structural: tech sector overcapacity and market revaluation, manufacturing consolidation, automation acceleration, and potential macroeconomic slowdown.

The annualized trajectory from 2024 into 2025 tracks toward approximately 400 notices and 61,000 affected workers should current rates continue, nearly matching 2020's pandemic peak despite fundamentally different economic circumstances. This parallel is deeply unsettling and indicates that Washington's economy faces persistent, substantial displacement pressures independent of external shocks.

Economic Context: Washington's Vulnerability Profile

Washington's economy, while wealthy and productive, displays structural vulnerabilities that the WARN data illuminates. The state's dependence on Boeing for advanced manufacturing employment and tax revenue creates singular exposure to aerospace industry cycles. Boeing's 22,938 layoffs represent permanent demand destruction in a sector offering few substitutes at equivalent wage levels. Displaced Boeing workers face substantial retraining costs and often geographic mobility constraints.

The disproportionate concentration of tech employment in the Puget Sound region creates a second vulnerability. While high-wage tech jobs have been transformative for Washington's regional economy, they exhibit extreme cyclicality and depend on venture capital availability, public equity market sentiment, and consumer discretionary spending. The 2025 surge in Microsoft and Amazon layoffs, occurring amid high corporate profitability and low unemployment, demonstrates that tech employment adjustments respond to relative internal performance targets and capital efficiency metrics rather than labor market slack. This means that even economically buoyant conditions fail to protect workers from tech sector displacement.

Washington's agricultural sector's vulnerability to mechanization and consolidation, evident in the 26 agricultural-sector notices affecting 10,374 workers, reflects global commodity price pressures and production concentration. Dairy farm consolidations, grain handling mechanization, and food processing automation have eliminated rural employment at a pace exceeding opportunity creation in rural service sectors.

The retail and hospitality contraction visible in the WARN data reflects long-term structural change: e-commerce substitution for retail employment, automation in food service and hospitality, and the shift toward higher-wage, lower-employment density economic activity. This creates a particular challenge for Washington workers without college degrees and those in smaller metropolitan areas, where retail and hospitality positions historically provided stable middle-class pathways.

Outlook: Monitoring and Policy Implications

The trajectory evident in WARN data suggests that 2025 will close with layoff volumes approaching 2020 pandemic levels, despite the absence of obvious macroeconomic catastrophe. This indicates either that a significant but unreported economic slowdown is underway, or that structural labor market adjustments in key Washington industries are accelerating independent of aggregate economic conditions. Workers and policymakers should monitor several indicators closely.

First, tech sector stability requires attention. Should Microsoft, Amazon, and other major tech employers file additional WARN notices in the latter half of 2025, the cumulative displacement could exceed 60,000 workers. The Puget Sound region would experience unemployment concentrations in high-wage professional roles, creating unique retraining and relocation challenges.

Second, Boeing's trajectory remains critical. The company's 75 existing notices likely reflect only a portion of planned adjustments. Should the aerospace and defense sector experience procurement reductions or schedule delays, additional notices could trigger Everett-area unemployment exceeding 5 percent and multiplier effects throughout the region.

Third, rural and agricultural consolidation will likely continue. The 26 agricultural notices affecting 10,374 workers suggest ongoing mechanization and consolidation that will displace 1,000–2,000 additional workers annually. Policy interventions focused on rural economic diversification become increasingly critical.

Fourth, healthcare consolidation warrants monitoring. With 96 notices already in the system, consolidations in hospital systems, clinics, and health service providers may accelerate. This would be particularly concerning given healthcare's role as a stable employment anchor in many Washington communities.

Workers and job seekers should recognize that layoff risks in Washington have elevated substantially and have become partially decoupled from traditional economic indicators. Individuals in tech, aerospace, manufacturing, retail, and hospitality sectors face material displacement risk even absent recession. Building skills, maintaining financial reserves, and considering geographic flexibility represent prudent individual adaptations to Washington's current labor market volatility.