WARN Act Layoffs in Kansas

In-Depth Analysis: Layoffs in Kansas

# Kansas Layoff Analysis: Aerospace Dominance, Cyclical Volatility, and Concentrated Regional Risk

Executive Summary: Scale and Trajectory of Kansas Workforce Displacement

Kansas has experienced 2,174 Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act filings affecting 160,579 workers over the period captured in this dataset. This figure represents a substantial employment shock distributed unevenly across time, geography, and industry sectors. The raw numbers obscure a more volatile reality: Kansas's layoff patterns reveal sharp cyclical spikes interspersed with periods of relative calm, with 2023 standing out as an exceptional displacement event. That single year generated 77 notices affecting 24,663 workers—a 19-year high in per-notice impact averaging 320 workers per filing. By contrast, 2024 and early 2025 show moderation, suggesting the state may have moved past an acute disruption phase, though structural vulnerabilities remain.

The geographic concentration of these layoffs is extreme. Wichita alone accounts for 410 notices and 58,567 displaced workers—36.5 percent of all state-level job losses. This spatial clustering around a single metropolitan area indicates that Kansas's labor market stability is, in practical terms, dependent on the fortunes of one city and one dominant industrial sector: aerospace and defense manufacturing. That concentration creates systemic fragility.

Aerospace Dominance: The Architecture of Kansas's Layoff Problem

The aerospace and defense sector does not appear as a discrete industry category in the provided taxonomy, but its dominance is unmistakable in the employer data. Boeing (appearing under multiple subsidiary designations) filed 284 notices affecting 16,247 workers. Hawker Beechcraft contributed 115 notices and 5,889 workers. Cessna, a subsidiary of Textron Aviation, filed 34 notices displacing 10,896 workers. Bombardier and its Learjet division filed 30 notices affecting 995 workers. Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, a major Boeing supplier, filed 8 notices displacing 2,743 workers. These six companies alone account for 471 notices—21.7 percent of all Kansas WARN filings—and 37,770 workers, or 23.5 percent of total state displacement.

The concentration deepens when considering that Raytheon (12 notices, 927 workers across multiple filings) and Raytheon Aircraft Company (14 notices, 242 workers) further solidify aerospace's grip. Combined aerospace filings likely exceed 500 notices and 39,000 workers, representing the single most significant driver of employment volatility in Kansas.

This dominance reflects historical path dependency. Wichita emerged as the nation's aerospace hub during the mid-twentieth century, attracting Beechcraft, Cessna, and later Boeing operations. The sector's capital intensity, engineering requirements, and agglomeration economies created competitive advantages that persisted across decades. However, this specialization created profound fragility. Aerospace demand is cyclically volatile, tied to commercial aviation cycles, defense spending, and geopolitical factors beyond Kansas's control. The sector is also experiencing structural headwinds: commercial aircraft production has faced bottlenecks and quality issues, defense budgets fluctuate with political administrations, and consolidation has reduced the number of independent manufacturers.

The 2023 spike appears directly attributable to aerospace disruptions. Boeing faced production and safety crises affecting the 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner programs, while broader supply chain pressures and labor disputes rippled through the industry. Hawker Beechcraft and Cessna similarly experienced demand softness. The clustering of 24,663 workers displaced in 2023—concentrated heavily in Wichita—almost certainly reflects these aerospace convulsions.

Geographic Concentration and Regional Economic Vulnerability

Wichita's dominance is economically hazardous. With 58,567 displaced workers from 410 notices, the city represents a single point of failure for Kansas's overall labor market. This exceeds the combined displacement from the second, third, and fourth largest affected cities (Overland Park with 11,753, Kansas City with 9,162, and Workforce Investment Area classifications accounting for 6,444). The metropolitan statistical area of Wichita has historically employed roughly 320,000 people across all sectors. A layoff event displacing 58,000+ workers represents an 18 percent shock to total metro employment—a traumatic contraction that cascades through local services, real estate, retail, and supporting industries.

Overland Park and the broader Kansas City metropolitan region show more diversified economic bases. Overland Park notices span retail (Walmart, Sears, ShopKo), telecommunications (Sprint, T-Mobile), and professional services. The 79 notices affecting 11,753 workers, while significant, reflect a broader distribution across sectors, suggesting greater economic resilience. Kansas City proper recorded 72 notices affecting 9,162 workers, again across multiple industries including healthcare, retail, and manufacturing.

The tier of secondary cities—Topeka (40 notices, 6,517 workers), Salina (38 notices, 2,752 workers), Lenexa (55 notices, 5,274 workers), and Lawrence (16 notices, 1,444 workers)—shows mixed patterns. Some of these are disproportionately affected by aerospace supply chain disruptions, while others reflect healthcare sector consolidation or retail rationalization. Topeka, home to insurance and healthcare operations, shows higher per-notice displacement (163 workers per notice), suggesting larger individual events rather than fragmented closures.

The geographic data reveals a Kansas economy with two distinct profiles: the aerospace-dependent Wichita corridor representing concentrated, cyclical risk, and the Kansas City metropolitan area plus secondary urban centers representing more stable, diversified employment. Policymakers and workers in the former face systematic vulnerability; those in the latter experience more moderate adjustment challenges.

Industry Structure: Manufacturing Dominance with Sectoral Diversification

Beyond aerospace, the industry taxonomy reveals a state economy where Manufacturing is the leading displacement driver, with 107 notices affecting 3,768 workers. However, this figure almost certainly understates aerospace's true impact, as many aerospace manufacturers are classified under this category. The real story emerges when examining the secondary industries.

Healthcare has emerged as a significant layoff generator, with 69 notices affecting 4,741 workers. This reflects a sector undergoing consolidation, payment model transitions, and automation of administrative functions. Large healthcare systems are rationalizing duplicative facilities and centralizing back-office operations, displacing workers who previously held stable, middle-class positions.

Information & Technology generated 54 notices affecting 4,422 workers. The Sprint layoffs (36 notices, 4,489 workers) represent the bulk of this category—a telecommunications company facing competition, network consolidation, and workforce automation. T-Mobile contributed additional notices (8 filings, 985 workers). This sector reflects both consolidation in telecommunications and the ongoing automation of routine IT and customer service functions.

Retail displacement across 37 notices and 1,464 workers reflects the structural decline of traditional brick-and-mortar retail. Walmart, Sears, ShopKo, and Kmart collectively filed notices displacing hundreds as e-commerce penetration, store closures, and inventory automation reduced traditional retail employment. These notices span multiple years, indicating a sustained contraction rather than a single shock.

Finance & Insurance (33 notices, 2,031 workers), Transportation (29 notices, 2,126 workers), and Education (21 notices, 1,566 workers) represent additional sectors where automation, consolidation, or demand shifts have reduced employment. Durham School Services, a bus transportation operator, filed 11 notices affecting 1,366 workers, likely reflecting route consolidation and automation of dispatch and maintenance functions.

The industry distribution demonstrates that while aerospace dominates in absolute scale, Kansas's workforce displacement reflects broad-based structural change: manufacturing consolidation, retail decline, healthcare rationalization, and the diffusion of automation across service sectors.

The Temporal Dimension: Cyclicality and Secular Decline

Kansas's layoff trajectory reveals distinct phases. The late 1990s and early 2000s show baseline volatility—26 to 60 notices annually with worker impacts ranging from 2,000 to 4,800. The 2002-2005 period represents an escalation, with 115 notices in 2002 (9,044 workers) and 102 notices in 2005 (11,166 workers). This interval likely reflects post-9/11 defense spending surges followed by rationalization, and broader manufacturing consolidation.

The 2008-2009 period captures the Great Recession's impact. 2009 generated 143 notices affecting 13,954 workers—one of the highest notice counts in the dataset. Aerospace demand collapsed as commercial airlines deferred aircraft orders and reduced capacity. Financial crisis transmission mechanisms affected nearly every sector.

The 2010-2018 period shows moderation. Annual notices ranged from 32 to 105, with worker displacements between 1,335 and 5,487 (excluding 2020). This represents a return to baseline volatility, though still elevated compared to the pre-2001 period. Retail layoffs dominate this interval—Sears, Kmart, and ShopKo closures reflecting e-commerce disruption.

The 2019-2020 transition marks a structural break. 2019 generated 112 notices affecting 3,157 workers—already elevated compared to recent years. But 2020 exploded: 206 notices and 20,316 affected workers. This encompasses both COVID-19 pandemic shocks across hospitality, education, and transportation sectors, and continued aerospace rationalization.

The 2023 spike to 77 notices and 24,663 workers represents the largest single-year worker displacement in the dataset. This appears driven principally by aerospace crises rather than pandemic-related effects, suggesting the sector was uniquely vulnerable to supply chain pressures, production challenges, and aircraft delivery delays in 2023.

2024 and 2025 show substantial moderation—57 notices affecting 3,491 workers in 2024 and 56 notices affecting 1,046 workers in early 2025. If this trend continues, Kansas may be entering a stabilization period, though the data window remains short for definitive trend assessment.

The trajectory suggests Kansas experienced genuine baseline displacement throughout the study period, punctuated by cyclical spikes (2003, 2009, 2020, 2023) corresponding to macroeconomic disruptions or sector-specific crises. The secular trend appears stable rather than deteriorating, with no evidence of monotonic increase in displacement rates.

Major Employers and Corporate Restructuring Drivers

The top employers filing WARN notices reveal corporate consolidation, operational rationalization, and automation's impact on workforce size. Boeing (284 combined notices) dominates the list, but the fragmentation across multiple legal entities—Boeing, The Boeing Company, Boeing Company, and Boeing Co—reflects either evolving corporate structure documentation or data classification inconsistencies. Regardless, Boeing's presence reflects the company's cyclical nature: the aerospace manufacturer expands and contracts workforce with order books and production schedules. The 2023 surge likely reflects MAX and 787 production challenges requiring temporary workforce reductions as quality issues and supply chain delays forced production halts.

Hawker Beechcraft and Cessna represent mid-market aircraft manufacturers facing similar cyclicality. These companies compete in the general aviation market, highly sensitive to business confidence and high-net-worth individual discretionary spending. The 2008-2009 and 2020-2023 periods saw demand destruction in this segment.

Sprint (36 notices, 4,489 workers) illustrates telecommunications sector consolidation. The company faced intense competition from Verizon and AT&T, sustained by lower-cost competitors like T-Mobile and cable-based providers. Layoffs reflect both demand pressures (fewer customers choosing traditional wireless plans) and operational consolidation (network rationalization, customer service automation, and redundancy elimination following mergers). T-Mobile's own layoffs (8 notices, 985 workers) reflect post-merger integration and automation, as the combined T-Mobile-Sprint entity eliminated duplicate positions and centralized operations.

Retail employers—Walmart (16 notices, 789 workers), Sears (9 notices, 186 workers), ShopKo (8 notices), Kmart (7 notices, 241 workers)—show the secular decline of traditional retail. These notices span multiple years, documenting the gradual store closure programs and workforce reductions as e-commerce penetration accelerated. ShopKo, notably, filed 8 notices with zero workers affected in the data provided, suggesting administrative or restructuring notices unaccompanied by WARN-triggering separations.

Durham School Services (11 notices, 1,366 workers) and transportation sector layoffs reflect route consolidation and automation of logistics and dispatch functions. Lucent Technologies (14 notices, 168 workers) and Siemens (11 notices, 447 workers) represent diversified industrial manufacturers rationalizing operations or exiting markets.

The employer distribution shows no single dominant private employer beyond aerospace manufacturers. Rather, the list reflects broad-based structural change: aerospace cycles, retail decline, telecommunications consolidation, and industrial manufacturing rationalization.

Economic Context and Kansas's Structural Position

Kansas's economy historically relied on agriculture, energy, and aerospace-related manufacturing. The state's Gross Domestic Product reflects this composition: agriculture and agribusiness remain significant, but manufacturing—particularly aerospace and defense—provides higher-wage employment concentrated in Wichita. The Kansas Department of Labor reports that manufacturing employment represents roughly 10 percent of total state employment, but Wichita's concentration means the figure approaches 20 percent for the metro area.

The layoff data reflects Kansas's vulnerability to national and global economic cycles filtered through these specialized sectors. Aerospace demand depends on commercial aircraft cycle dynamics and defense spending, both substantially determined outside Kansas. Retail decline reflects e-commerce penetration, a force Kansas cannot resist. Healthcare consolidation reflects national industry trends toward larger systems and automation.

However, Kansas also possesses economic resilience factors absent from the WARN data. The state's cost of living remains below national averages, attracting some dispersed back-office operations. Kansas City metropolitan areas have diversified professional services, financial services, and technology employment. Agricultural processing and agribusiness provide stable employment in rural areas. The state's unemployment rate has typically tracked near national averages despite layoff volatility.

The mismatch between concentrated layoff activity and overall state economic health reflects the particular vulnerability of Wichita and aerospace-dependent regions rather than broad economic deterioration.

Outlook: Monitoring Points for Workers and Policymakers

Workers and policymakers should monitor several indicators. First, aerospace production normalization will determine Wichita's labor market trajectory. If Boeing and major suppliers stabilize production and restore workforce levels, 2024-2025 moderation will represent cyclical recovery rather than permanent demand destruction. Conversely, if supply chain disruptions or quality challenges persist, further layoffs are probable.

Second, the pace of retail rationalization appears to be slowing, suggesting the acute phase of e-commerce disruption has passed. Remaining Walmart and Target warehouse operations increasingly require workers despite store closures, potentially offsetting retail job losses.

Third, healthcare sector consolidation and automation represent ongoing displacement sources. Policymakers should anticipate continued healthcare layoffs as systems eliminate administrative redundancies and implement electronic health record optimization.

Fourth, regional economic diversification remains critical for Wichita. Continued dependence on aerospace creates systematic vulnerability. Efforts to attract technology, professional services, and non-aerospace manufacturing should be prioritized.

Finally, workforce development and transition assistance systems must be calibrated to handle both cyclical aerospace fluctuations (which may require temporary income support and retraining) and secular shifts (which may require permanent occupational transitions). The data suggests Kansas's challenges are more cyclical than secularly deteriorating, but concentrated geographic risk demands targeted policy response.