Macro traders and portfolio managers increasingly rely on alternative data to gain an information edge. Labor market data — spanning layoff filings, hiring trends, and government employment statistics — provides some of the most actionable signals for macroeconomic analysis.
Six Datasets, One Unified Signal
WARN Firehose aggregates six cross-referenced federal datasets into a single API:
| Dataset | Signal Type | Leading Indicator |
|---|---|---|
| WARN Act Notices | Company-level distress | 60 days |
| SEC 8-K Filings | Restructuring costs | 30-90 days |
| Bankruptcy Filings | Severe distress confirmation | Real-time |
| H-1B/LCA Visas | Hiring trends (inverse signal) | Quarterly |
| DOL Claims | Unemployment trajectory | Weekly |
| JOLTS | Job openings, quits, separations | Monthly |
Macro Signals from Combined Data
Recession Indicators
When WARN filings accelerate across multiple sectors AND DOL initial claims rise AND JOLTS job openings decline — the confluence signals broad economic deterioration, typically 3-6 months before NBER officially declares a recession.
Sector Rotation Timing
Our Industry Domino Index identifies which sectors are deteriorating fastest, while visa petition data reveals which sectors are still hiring aggressively — providing natural sector rotation pairs.
Regional Economic Health
The State Intelligence API combines all 6 datasets into a per-state distress score, useful for municipal bond analysis and regional exposure management.
Data Delivery for Quant Teams
All data available via REST API (JSON), bulk download (CSV/Parquet), or enterprise delivery (AWS Data Exchange, Snowflake). Updated daily.
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