WARN Act Layoffs in Goshen, Indiana

Analysis: Layoffs in Goshen, Indiana

# Economic Analysis: Layoffs in Goshen, Indiana

Overview: Scale and Significance of Workforce Disruption

Goshen, Indiana has experienced substantial workforce disruption over the past 15 years, with 10 WARN (Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification) notices affecting 1,863 workers across diverse industries. This concentration of layoffs in a city with a population of approximately 36,000 represents a significant economic shock, affecting roughly 5% of the local workforce in documented mass layoff events alone. The scale becomes more pronounced when considering that these figures capture only formal WARN notices—actual job losses in the region may be considerably higher when accounting for smaller layoffs below the WARN threshold of 50 workers.

The data reveals a regional economy vulnerable to sudden, large-scale employment disruptions. The largest single layoff event involved Cequent Performance Products Inc, which eliminated 434 positions in a single WARN notice, representing 23% of all documented job losses in Goshen over this period. This pattern of massive single-employer reductions indicates an economy dependent on a relatively small number of large manufacturers and distributors rather than a diversified employment base. For a Midwestern city of Goshen's size, this concentration poses structural risks to community stability, household income stability, and tax base sustainability.

Dominant Employers and Workforce Reduction Drivers

The layoff landscape in Goshen is overwhelmingly shaped by manufacturing and logistics companies, with six of the top ten employers operating in these sectors. Cequent Performance Products Inc, a supplier of towing and trailering products, filed a single notice eliminating 434 workers—more than a quarter of all documented job losses. Keystone RV Company, a major recreational vehicle manufacturer, contributed the second-largest layoff with 334 affected workers. Together, these two companies account for 37% of all WARN-documented job losses in Goshen.

The RV and recreational equipment manufacturing sector appears particularly volatile. Keystone RV Company's substantial layoff reflects broader cyclicality in leisure product manufacturing, which is highly sensitive to consumer discretionary spending and credit availability. The RV industry experienced significant contraction following the 2008 financial crisis and again during economic downturns, making it a precarious anchor employer for any regional economy.

GDC, Inc eliminated 293 positions, making it the third-largest employer filing WARN notices. Shiloh Industries, Inc (operating through Grouper Acquisition Company, LLC) reduced its workforce by 172 workers, while Benteler, an automotive and industrial supplier, cut 162 positions. These reductions point toward broader challenges in automotive supply chains and industrial manufacturing—sectors that have faced intense competitive pressure from global competitors and ongoing automation. The combined job losses from just these five employers total 1,395 workers, or 75% of all documented displacements.

Retail and healthcare also appear in Goshen's layoff history. Sam's Club - Elkhart Road Store eliminated 110 positions through a single WARN notice, reflecting the retail sector's ongoing contraction and consolidation. Medtec Ambulance Corp reduced staff by 154 workers, suggesting challenges in the specialized healthcare equipment sector. These diversions from pure manufacturing indicate that Goshen's economic vulnerability extends across multiple sectors rather than concentrating solely in traditional industrial employment.

Industry Patterns and Structural Economic Forces

The available industry classification data is limited but illuminating. Transportation-related employment—represented by a single WARN notice affecting 144 workers—constitutes a documented sector experiencing disruption. However, the broader pattern across all ten notices points toward manufacturing and logistics as the primary vulnerability. Approximately 1,400 of 1,863 documented job losses come from companies in manufacturing, automotive supply, or transportation equipment production.

This concentration reflects Goshen's historical position in Indiana's manufacturing corridor. The city developed as a significant production center for RVs, trailers, mobile homes, and automotive components—industries deeply integrated into the broader North-Central American industrial base. However, this same specialization has created structural fragility. Manufacturing employment has faced sustained headwinds from automation, global supply chain restructuring, and the shift of production capacity to lower-cost regions. The specific vulnerability of RV manufacturing to consumer sentiment and credit cycles compounds this challenge.

The presence of large logistics and distribution operations (evidenced by Sam's Club) reflects broader supply chain consolidation and the rise of e-commerce, which has disrupted traditional retail employment patterns. Automation in warehousing and fulfillment continues to reduce headcount requirements per unit of throughput, creating pressure on employers like Sam's Club to reduce local staffing despite potentially higher overall operational volumes.

Historical Trends: Patterns of Disruption Over Time

The temporal distribution of WARN notices reveals a striking pattern: two notices in 2026 represent either forward-filed notices or data reporting delays, making analysis of recent trends uncertain. Setting those aside, the period from 2011 through 2022 shows sporadic but significant disruptions. A single notice in 2011 affected workers, followed by isolated notices in 2012 and 2014. The period from 2015 through 2019 shows no documented WARN notices, suggesting either economic stability or periods where employer decisions fell below the WARN threshold.

The year 2020 represents a notable inflection point, with three WARN notices filed—likely reflecting pandemic-related disruptions to RV manufacturing, retail, and possibly other sectors. This clustering suggests that 2020 disruptions were sufficiently severe and synchronized to trigger multiple formal workforce adjustments simultaneously. The single 2022 notice indicates ongoing but less severe layoff activity as the economy recovered from pandemic impacts.

Importantly, the data does not show a clear upward or downward trend across the full period. Instead, it reveals volatility clustered around specific economic downturns: the 2011-2012 period (tail end of post-2008 recession recovery), the 2020 pandemic disruption, and potentially other localized company-specific crises in 2014 and 2018. This pattern suggests that Goshen's layoffs are driven primarily by cyclical economic downturns and company-specific strategic decisions rather than a steady secular decline in local employment.

Local Economic Impact: Community and Household Consequences

The impact of nearly 1,900 job losses on a city of 36,000 residents extends well beyond the immediate workers affected. Each job loss in a manufacturing setting typically affects not only the worker but also their household, local supply chains, and consumer spending in the community. A conservative multiplier analysis suggests that each manufacturing job loss generates secondary economic effects through reduced consumer spending, tax revenue decline, and increased demand for social services.

The geographic concentration of disruptions among a small number of large employers means that some neighborhoods and school districts have likely experienced disproportionate impacts. Families depending on single large-employer income sources faced income volatility and potential need for job retraining in a regional labor market where alternative manufacturing employment may be geographically distant or require skill transitions.

The scale of these layoffs has almost certainly strained Goshen's municipal finances. Loss of income tax revenue from displaced workers and potential loss of tax contributions from employers undergoing contraction creates pressure on municipal services, schools, and infrastructure maintenance precisely when demand for workforce development services and social support may be rising.

Regional Context: Goshen Within Indiana's Economic Landscape

Goshen exists within Elkhart County, a region historically dependent on RV manufacturing and automotive supply. Indiana's broader economy has experienced similar structural pressures: declining manufacturing employment, automation-driven job losses, and supply chain consolidation. Elkhart County's concentration in RV manufacturing has made the region particularly vulnerable to cyclical disruption, with the industry experiencing severe contraction during the 2008-2009 recession and again during the 2020 pandemic.

Compared to larger Indiana employment centers like Indianapolis and the Lake Michigan industrial corridor, Goshen has less economic diversification. The presence of Goshen College and other institutional anchors provides some stability, but the private sector employment base remains heavily tilted toward vulnerable manufacturing sectors. The 10 WARN notices affecting 1,863 workers in Goshen likely represent a higher percentage of local employment disruption than comparable notices would in larger Indiana cities with more diversified economies.

The historical pattern of Goshen's layoffs suggests the city's economic vulnerability is neither unique within Indiana nor attributable to any single policy failure. Rather, it reflects the structural challenges facing all Rust Belt manufacturing centers—challenges rooted in global competition, automation, and shifts in consumer demand. The sporadic nature of layoffs, however, provides opportunity for proactive economic development strategy focused on sectoral diversification, workforce skill development, and support for emerging industries that can provide more stable, less cyclically vulnerable employment alternatives to traditional manufacturing.