WARN Act Layoffs in South Carolina

In-Depth Analysis: Layoffs in South Carolina

# Comprehensive Economic Analysis of Layoffs in South Carolina

Executive Summary

South Carolina has experienced 954 WARN (Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification) notices affecting 764,445 workers since the tracking period began, making layoff activity a persistent feature of the state's labor market. However, this aggregate figure masks a profoundly distorted distribution: 2020 alone accounts for 155 notices and 647,305 workers—an extraordinary spike driven almost entirely by pandemic-related disruptions in Accommodation & Food Services. Excluding this anomalous year, South Carolina averaged roughly 32 notices annually affecting 6,700 workers, suggesting a more measured but still significant baseline level of workforce turbulence.

The trajectory since the pandemic reveals a state navigating competing pressures. The years 2022-2024 collectively registered 227 notices affecting 23,646 workers, indicating that post-pandemic normalization has not eliminated layoff activity but rather reset it to elevated historical levels. The 84 notices filed in 2024 and 57 through 2025 suggest continuing instability, though the dramatic reduction in workers affected per notice—averaging 77 workers in 2025 versus 4,170 in 2020—indicates a return to smaller-scale workforce adjustments. For South Carolina's 2.1 million employed workers, the current annual layoff rate represents meaningful but not catastrophic labor market churn.

Industry Analysis: The Diversified Vulnerability

South Carolina's layoff profile reveals an economy experiencing simultaneous pressures across distinct sectors, each driven by different structural forces. Manufacturing and Healthcare emerge as the two dominant sources, together accounting for 104 notices and 8,637 workers—nearly 23 percent of all WARN filings. This sectoral concentration reflects not weakness in a single industry but rather the reality that larger employers, who predominate in these sectors, must file WARN notices when restructuring.

The Manufacturing sector's 52 notices affecting 4,833 workers primarily reflects automation and global supply chain reorganization rather than cyclical demand destruction. South Carolina's manufacturing base, historically centered on textiles and apparel, has already undergone decades of contraction; the WARN notices now come from sophisticated operations in chemicals, automotive components, and metals processing—sectors increasingly vulnerable to robot deployment and offshoring to lower-wage jurisdictions. Century Aluminum, Mohawk Industries, and WestRock represent this profile: established manufacturers with significant capital investments confronting technological obsolescence and international competition. The relatively modest worker counts per manufacturing notice (93 workers per notice) compared to historical baselines suggests that many traditional large plants have already disappeared, replaced by smaller, more automated operations.

Healthcare presents a different challenge. Fifty-two notices affecting 3,804 workers, with Prisma Health alone accounting for nine notices and 689 workers, indicate that even healthcare systems are streamlining operations. This reflects the sector-wide transition from inpatient to outpatient care, the consolidation of hospital systems reducing redundancy, and automation of back-office functions. Unlike manufacturing's structural decline, healthcare layoffs often signal operational consolidation accompanying broader industry consolidation trends—a sign that regional hospitals are integrating with larger systems and eliminating duplicate administrative roles.

Accommodation & Food Services represents a volatile but critical vulnerability, with 16 notices affecting 4,739 workers. Outside the pandemic year, this sector represents only 2.3 percent of notices but involves the largest workforce per notice (297 workers), indicating periodic mass layoffs at major hospitality operations. Sodexo, a food service operator, alone filed 11 notices affecting 1,562 workers, suggesting that contract food service providers operate on margins thin enough to trigger rapid workforce cuts when clients reduce volumes or shift vendors. This sector's volatility makes it a leading indicator of broader economic stress, particularly in tourism-dependent regions like Charleston and Myrtle Beach.

Transportation accounts for 22 notices affecting 3,246 workers, a significant but underappreciated vulnerability given Boeing's presence in the state and the role of trucking and logistics firms. The aerospace sector's cyclical nature—tied to commercial aircraft demand and defense spending—creates episodic but severe employment swings. Boeing's four notices affecting 295 workers appear modest, but represent only a subset of workforce reductions; major suppliers and subcontractors, not all of whom file WARN notices independently, may amplify these impacts through supply chain effects.

Finance & Insurance, with 15 notices affecting 913 workers, reveals ongoing employment vulnerability despite the sector's concentration in Charleston. Wells Fargo, with 11 notices affecting 1,323 workers, dominates this category, reflecting the bank's strategic shift toward digital banking, branch consolidation, and headcount reduction following regulatory pressures and strategic repositioning. The relatively high workers-per-notice ratio (61 per notice) indicates that financial services layoffs, when they occur, tend to be targeted at specific divisions or geographies rather than mass reductions.

Sectors like Information & Technology, Professional Services, and Retail show minimal layoff activity through WARN filings, suggesting either greater employment stability or more frequent use of informal severance arrangements avoiding the 50-worker threshold that triggers WARN notification requirements. This absence is notable for Retail, which has experienced seismic disruption nationally due to e-commerce; South Carolina's apparent resilience here may reflect its lower retail employment base relative to national averages and the regional prevalence of discount and dollar-store formats less vulnerable to online competition than traditional department stores.

Geographic Concentration: Regional Vulnerability Mapping

Layoff activity clusters heavily in South Carolina's Piedmont region and key port cities, revealing how economic geography shapes vulnerability. Greenville leads with 71 notices affecting 5,720 workers, followed closely by Columbia (56 notices, 6,085 workers) and Charleston (40 notices, 4,626 workers). Together, these three metros account for 167 notices and 16,431 workers—roughly 35 percent of all state WARN activity.

Greenville's prominence reflects its role as the state's manufacturing and logistics hub, home to Michelin tire operations, automotive suppliers, and distribution centers. The 71 notices suggest continuous restructuring across this diversified industrial base, with no single dominant employer driving the pattern. Columbia, the state capital, shows similar diversification but with greater concentration in professional services and government-adjacent employment; its 56 notices likely reflect periodic downsizing at state agencies and healthcare systems. Charleston's 40 notices, despite being the state's third-largest metro, reflects its smaller employment base and specialization in port operations, tourism, and financial services—sectors experiencing punctuated rather than continuous workforce reduction.

The concentration extends beyond these metros. North Charleston (33 notices, 4,405 workers), adjacent to Charleston, compounds layoff activity in the Lowcountry, while Spartanburg (27 notices, 5,268 workers), further inland in the textile-historic Piedmont, shows sustained workforce turbulence. Aiken (25 notices, 3,288 workers), home to the Savannah River Site and associated nuclear operations, experiences episodic layoffs tied to federal appropriations and contractor consolidation—a vulnerability unique to communities dependent on defense and energy installations.

The geographic pattern reflects South Carolina's economic structure: a Piedmont corridor running from Greenville through Spartanburg to Columbia anchors most private-sector employment, while Charleston and Myrtle Beach represent tourism and port-dependent clusters increasingly vulnerable to economic cycles. Secondary cities like Gaffney (17 notices, 2,337 workers), Orangeburg (12 notices, 2,110 workers), and Goose Creek (12 notices, 1,899 workers) show concentrated layoff activity suggesting dependence on single large employers or limited sectoral diversity. This geographic vulnerability pattern should concern policymakers: regional economies lacking employment diversification face disproportionate hardship when major employers restructure.

Major Employers: Strategic Reorientation and Restructuring

The top employers filing WARN notices reveal distinct patterns of workforce adjustment. Wells Fargo and Sodexo lead with 11 notices each, affecting 1,323 and 1,562 workers respectively, yet represent fundamentally different pressures. Wells Fargo's notices reflect the bank's multi-year retreat from physical branch networks and legacy back-office operations following post-2008 regulatory scrutiny and the strategic decision to emphasize digital banking and wealth management. The distribution of 11 notices across South Carolina indicates that these reductions occurred incrementally across multiple facilities rather than catastrophic facility closures, suggesting managed workforce rightsizing aligned with business transformation strategy.

Sodexo, conversely, operates in contract food services where notices often reflect client decisions to internalize operations, switch vendors, or reduce service volumes. The 11 notices affecting 1,562 workers indicate a company navigating volatile demand from institutional clients—hospitals, universities, corporate campuses—adjusting supply to match shifting customer requirements. Each notice likely reflects a lost or downsized contract, revealing the precarious position of service providers dependent on client contract renewals.

Prisma Health (nine notices, 689 workers) exemplifies healthcare sector consolidation, filing notices as the regional health system integrates acquired facilities, consolidates administrative functions, and adjusts clinical staffing to align with changing inpatient/outpatient ratios. The relatively low workers-per-notice ratio (77) compared to some other major employers suggests surgical reductions targeting specific departments or functions rather than mass facility closures.

Hostess Brands presents an interesting case: nine notices affecting only 75 workers suggests not declining business but rather automation of production facilities. As a packaged snack food manufacturer, Hostess has likely modernized production lines, reducing direct labor requirements while potentially maintaining or growing output. This pattern—declining worker counts despite potentially stable or growing revenue—represents the structural challenge facing manufacturing-dependent regions: productivity growth eliminating jobs despite economic stability.

Cardinal Health, Total, Charleston (all locations consolidated), Tupperware, and Peak Workforce Solutions collectively indicate white-collar job vulnerability. Cardinal Health (seven notices, 326 workers), a healthcare logistics distributor, shows modest layoff activity consistent with industry consolidation and automation of distribution centers. Tupperware (six notices, 355 workers) reflects the fundamental disruption of direct-sales business models, a vulnerability extending far beyond this single company to the entire direct-sales industry facing changing consumer behavior and generational shifts away from home-party purchasing models.

Peak Workforce Solutions (six notices, 260 workers), a staffing firm, reveals the paradox that even firms specialized in employment intermediation experience significant layoffs, typically accompanying broader economic slowdowns affecting their client demand for temporary workers.

Historical Trends: Pandemic Distortion and Post-Pandemic Stability

South Carolina's WARN notice trajectory reveals a labor market punctuated by the pandemic but otherwise characterized by steady-state turbulence. From 2012 through 2019, the state averaged 33 notices annually affecting 4,300 workers—a baseline reflecting normal corporate restructuring, facility closures, and business cycle fluctuations. This baseline persisted despite the 2014-2016 period of declining oil prices, industrial slowdown, and broader economic uncertainty, suggesting South Carolina's economy possessed sufficient diversification to avoid severe dislocation during mild recessions.

The 2020 pandemic explosion—155 notices affecting 647,305 workers—represents an exogenous shock entirely divorced from underlying economic fundamentals. The Accommodation & Food Services sector alone accounts for the overwhelming majority of this spike, driven by government-mandated closures and the abrupt suspension of travel and hospitality activity. This year, while historically significant and economically devastating for affected workers, provides minimal insight into structural trends in the South Carolina economy and inflates long-term averages in ways that mislead policymakers focused on "normalcy."

The post-pandemic period tells a more instructive story. From 2021 through 2025 (incomplete year), South Carolina filed 320 notices affecting 33,236 workers—an annual average of 54 notices and 5,540 workers. This exceeds the 2012-2019 baseline by approximately 60 percent in notice frequency and 30 percent in affected workers. The elevation suggests that pandemic-era disruption left structural damage: supply chain fragmentation, accelerated automation adoption, and business failures beyond the hospitality sector created ongoing workforce adjustments extending well beyond the acute pandemic period.

The annual breakdown since 2020 reveals no clear trend toward normalization. After the 2020 spike, 2021 dropped to 36 notices (4,777 workers), suggesting some stabilization, but 2022-2024 maintained elevated levels (70-84 notices annually, 8,500-9,000 workers), inconsistent with a simple V-shaped recovery. The 2025 figure of 57 notices and 5,243 workers, if annualized, would approximate 75-80 notices, suggesting the new baseline has stabilized at roughly double pre-pandemic levels. This persistent elevation indicates structural rather than cyclical changes in South Carolina's labor market.

Economic Context: South Carolina's Structural Position

Understanding South Carolina's layoff patterns requires situating them within the state's distinctive economic structure and development trajectory. The state's economy has historically centered on three pillars: manufacturing (particularly textiles and chemicals), military installations (particularly Charleston Naval Base and Aiken's Savannah River Site), and agriculture. Each pillar has experienced profound transformation over the past two decades.

Manufacturing employment has contracted from approximately 12 percent of total employment in 2000 to roughly 7 percent today, reflecting both national trends and South Carolina-specific pressures. Unlike northern Rust Belt states that specialized in automotive and steel, South Carolina's manufacturing base diversified early, developing strength in chemicals, automotive components, and machinery alongside traditional textiles. This diversification has provided resilience but not immunity; the WARN data indicates that remaining manufacturers face continuous pressure to automate and offshore, with few new plants offsetting departures.

Military installation employment, concentrated in the Charleston metro, provides relatively stable employment through federal budget cycles but creates vulnerability during sequestration or strategic reorientation. The Aiken region's dependence on Department of Energy contracting similarly creates episodic layoff risk when appropriations fluctuate or contractors consolidate operations.

Tourism, concentrated in Myrtle Beach and Charleston, represents the state's growth sector over the past 30 years, yet the WARN data indicates this sector's volatility—hospitality employment swings dramatically with economic cycles and external shocks. The pandemic's disproportionate impact on Accommodation & Food Services reflects this vulnerability; absent the pandemic, South Carolina's layoff profile would appear considerably less severe.

The state's per-capita income remains approximately 10 percent below the national average, and unemployment rates, while currently moderate, historically exceed national levels during downturns. This suggests that workers displaced through WARN-triggering events face a labor market with limited high-wage replacement opportunities, particularly for workers in manufacturing and traditional sectors requiring limited educational credentials. The concentration of layoff activity in the Piedmont region creates acute challenges for workers in smaller metropolitan areas lacking the diversified job markets of Greenville or Columbia.

Outlook and Implications

South Carolina's evolving layoff landscape signals several critical developments warranting close monitoring. First, the persistence of elevated WARN activity through 2025 suggests that structural economic transformation continues, not cyclical downturn. Workers displaced from manufacturing, food service, and financial services face a state economy gradually reorienting toward healthcare, professional services, and tourism—sectors often demanding credential requirements or geographic flexibility unavailable to displaced workers from declining industries. Policymakers must prioritize workforce development funding and educational partnerships to facilitate transitions rather than accepting permanent displacement and regional decline.

Second, the geographic concentration of layoff activity should prompt economic diversification initiatives in vulnerable regions. Spartanburg, Aiken, and smaller Piedmont communities show WARN activity suggesting limited employment alternatives; targeted incentives for firm recruitment and entrepreneurship support could reduce future vulnerability to single-employer dependence.

Third, the apparent stabilization of layoff activity at elevated post-pandemic levels warrants investigation into potential structural shifts—supply chain regionalization, automation acceleration, and business model disruption—that may have permanently reduced employment in certain sectors. If automation in manufacturing and logistics continues accelerating, and if financial services and food service remain vulnerable to digital disruption and contract volatility, South Carolina's layoff baseline may remain elevated indefinitely absent significant new industry development.

Finally, the modest workers-per-notice ratios in recent years, despite elevated notice frequency, suggests that layoffs increasingly reflect targeted reductions rather than mass facility closures. This distributes economic pain more widely but perhaps less acutely, avoiding the concentrated devastation of a single plant closure while diffusing adjustment challenges across the labor market. From a policy perspective, this distributed pain may actually complicate adjustment assistance, as smaller cohorts of displaced workers receive less regulatory attention and support than larger mass layoff events.

South Carolina's labor market faces not acute crisis but chronic turbulence—the ongoing friction of an economy restructuring toward services, knowledge work, and tourism while shedding manufacturing capacity and legacy employment models. Managing this transition while supporting affected workers and communities represents the primary economic challenge facing the state over the next decade.