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Risk Signals Exclusive

Cross-referencing 6 federal datasets to surface labor market patterns invisible from any single source. Updated daily.

Layoff Velocity by State

Are layoffs speeding up or slowing down? Compares recent filing rates to the prior baseline, cross-validated with DOL unemployment claims.

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How it works: Divides recent notices/week by baseline notices/week. Score > 1.0 = accelerating, < 1.0 = decelerating. Weighted 40% WARN velocity + 40% employee velocity + 20% DOL claims trend.

State Workforce Stress

Composite distress score (0-10) per state. Only scores stress when conditions are worsening vs the prior 90 days — stable conditions score near zero.

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5 components: Layoff surge (0-3) + Unemployment claims increase (0-2.5) + Hiring decline (0-2) + Bankruptcy filings (0-1.5) + Employer concentration (0-1). Stable or improving conditions add zero points.

Talent Displacement

Companies laying off workers while simultaneously filing H-1B/LCA visa petitions — a potential signal of workforce restructuring rather than pure downsizing. Score: 0-10.

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How it works: Ratio of visa petitions to layoffs, scaled by layoff volume. Score capped at 10. A score of 5+ means significant visa hiring activity relative to layoffs. Note: visa petitions may involve different roles or divisions.

Metro Hotspots

Cities where multiple unrelated companies are filing layoff notices — a sign that economic distress is spreading across employers in the same area. Score: 0-10.

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How it works: More companies + more employees + tighter time clustering = higher score. Multi-industry spread (not just one sector) is the strongest warning sign.

Industry Cascade

Industries where layoffs are cascading across multiple states — signaling systemic, industry-wide distress. Cross-referenced with SEC restructuring filings and bankruptcy data. Score: 0-10.

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How it works: More states + more companies + more employees + tighter timeframe = higher score. SEC filings and bankruptcy data provide independent confirmation of financial distress.
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