Risk Signals Exclusive
Cross-referencing 6 federal datasets to surface labor market patterns invisible from any single source. Updated daily.
Layoff Velocity by State
Detect layoff acceleration before it hits headlines. Compares recent WARN filing rates against a historical baseline, cross-validated with federal unemployment claims data.
Measures how fast layoffs are accelerating or decelerating in each state by comparing recent WARN filing rates against a historical baseline. A score above 1.0 means layoffs are accelerating; below 1.0 means they're slowing down.
- WARN filing velocity — notices per week in the recent window vs. the baseline period
- Employee displacement rate — total workers affected, normalized by window size
- DOL claims cross-validation — federal unemployment claims data used to confirm or contradict the WARN signal
Data sources: WARN Act filings (all 50 states, updated daily), DOL Weekly Unemployment Claims (updated weekly)
State Workforce Stress
Identify which states are deteriorating fastest. Composite distress score (0-10) that only activates when conditions are worsening — stable states score near zero.
Composite distress score (0-10) per state that only activates when conditions are deteriorating. Stable or improving states score near zero — this is a directional signal, not a level indicator.
- Layoff surge — WARN notices and employees affected vs. the prior 90-day baseline
- Unemployment claims — DOL initial claims trajectory (rising = stress)
- Hiring decline — H-1B/LCA visa petition activity dropping (fewer new roles being created)
- Bankruptcy filings — Chapter 11 filings in the state from federal court records
- Employer concentration — risk that a small number of employers dominate layoffs (single-company dependency)
Data sources: WARN Act (daily), DOL Claims (weekly), H-1B/LCA petitions (DOL, monthly), Bankruptcy filings (PACER + SEC, daily)
Talent Displacement
Spot companies restructuring their workforce — laying off domestic workers while hiring visa-sponsored replacements. A signal of strategic shift, not just downsizing.
Identifies companies simultaneously laying off workers and sponsoring new visa hires — a signal of workforce restructuring rather than pure downsizing. Score 0-10.
- WARN layoff volume — total employees affected in WARN filings within the selected window
- Visa petition activity — H-1B approvals and LCA certifications filed by the same employer
- Displacement ratio — relationship between layoff volume and new visa-sponsored hiring activity
Note: visa petitions may involve different roles, locations, or divisions than affected employees. This signal indicates strategic workforce shifts, not necessarily direct replacement.
Data sources: WARN Act (daily), USCIS H-1B petitions (annual), DOL LCA petitions (quarterly)
Metro Hotspots
Detect geographic contagion — metros where layoffs are spreading across unrelated employers. Multi-industry clustering is the strongest leading indicator of regional economic stress.
Surfaces metro areas where layoffs are clustering across multiple unrelated employers — an early indicator of regional economic stress that may not yet be visible in aggregate statistics.
- Company density — number of distinct employers filing WARN notices in the same metro area
- Employee impact — total workers affected across all filings in the metro
- Temporal clustering — filings concentrated in tight time windows score higher than spread-out notices
- Cross-industry spread — layoffs spanning multiple NAICS sectors indicate broader economic stress vs. a single-sector event
Data sources: WARN Act (daily), BLS NAICS industry classifications, geocoded metro area mapping
Industry Cascade
Identify sector-wide distress before it becomes consensus. When the same industry is shedding jobs across multiple states simultaneously, confirmed by SEC filings and bankruptcies, the signal is systemic.
Detects industries experiencing coordinated layoffs across multiple states — a signal of systemic sector-wide distress, not isolated company problems. Independently confirmed against SEC and bankruptcy filings.
- Geographic spread — number of states where the same industry is filing WARN notices simultaneously
- Company breadth — distinct companies affected (more companies = less likely to be idiosyncratic)
- Employee displacement — total workers affected across the industry nationwide
- Temporal concentration — filings clustered in time score higher than distributed notices
- Independent confirmation — SEC 8-K restructuring/impairment disclosures and Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings from companies in the same industry
Data sources: WARN Act (daily), SEC EDGAR 8-K filings (daily), Federal bankruptcy courts via PACER (daily), BLS NAICS industry classifications