WARN Act Layoffs in Goodyear, Arizona

Analysis: Layoffs in Goodyear, Arizona

# Economic Analysis: Goodyear, Arizona Layoff Landscape

Overview: Scale and Significance of Workforce Reductions

Goodyear, Arizona has experienced moderate but concentrated workforce disruption through seven WARN notices affecting 1,383 workers over the past sixteen years. This represents a significant labor market event for a municipality with a 2020 population of approximately 75,000 residents. The total affected workforce constitutes roughly 1.8 percent of the city's population, signaling meaningful economic strain concentrated among specific employers and industry sectors rather than broad-based community-wide recession.

The temporal distribution of these notices reveals an uneven pattern of disruption. After remaining dormant between 2009 and 2019, Goodyear's WARN activity accelerated dramatically, with five of seven total notices filed within the last two years. This clustering suggests either emerging structural vulnerabilities in the local economy or cyclical pressures affecting major regional employers simultaneously. The sharp uptick in 2025 alone, accounting for two notices, indicates ongoing labor market stress that warrants careful monitoring by local policymakers and workforce development agencies.

The HelloFresh and Sub-Zero Dominance: Two Mega-Layoffs

Two employers account for nearly 79 percent of all workers affected by WARN notices in Goodyear. Manpower Group US Inc. dba HelloFresh filed a single notice in the Utilities sector affecting 564 workers, while Sub-Zero Group Inc initiated one notice reducing its workforce by 446 employees. These two companies alone displaced 1,010 workers through just two separate events, overshadowing all other layoffs combined.

The HelloFresh action is particularly notable given its classification within the Utilities sector rather than the food delivery or technology sectors typically associated with the company. This classification discrepancy may reflect HelloFresh's supply chain and logistics operations in Goodyear, which handle order fulfillment and distribution rather than the consumer-facing digital platform. The scale of this reduction—564 workers—suggests closure or dramatic consolidation of a major regional distribution facility. Such layoffs in logistics and supply chain operations typically result from facility consolidation, automation investments, or market share losses in competitive delivery markets.

Sub-Zero Group Inc's 446-worker reduction similarly indicates substantial operational restructuring. Sub-Zero manufactures premium refrigeration equipment and operates manufacturing facilities across multiple states. The Goodyear layoff likely reflects manufacturing automation, production line consolidation, or relocation of operations to lower-cost regions. Manufacturing employment in Arizona has faced persistent headwinds from both automation adoption and competition from lower-wage jurisdictions, making Sub-Zero's action consistent with broader sectoral trends.

Industry Patterns: Manufacturing and Logistics Under Pressure

Despite seven notices affecting diverse employers, the industry breakdown reveals stark concentration. Only two industries appear in the data: Utilities (564 workers, one notice) and Retail (77 workers, one notice). This reporting pattern obscures critical context, as many affected companies operate in manufacturing, logistics, and supply chain management that should be classified accordingly. The HelloFresh action likely belongs in Transportation or Warehousing rather than Utilities, while Sub-Zero clearly operates in Manufacturing. This classification variance complicates sectoral analysis but underscores that Goodyear's major job losses stem from goods production and distribution rather than service provision.

The remaining five employers—UPS Supply Chain Solutions, Inc (98 workers), ABM Industry Group, Inc (87 workers), Bashas' Family Stores (77 workers), Meyer Burger Americas (72 workers), and Systems Solutions of Kentucky (39 workers)—represent a secondary tier of disruption affecting 373 workers collectively. These companies operate in logistics, facility management, retail grocery, advanced manufacturing (solar panels), and business services respectively, indicating diversified but mid-sized labor reductions across multiple sectors.

The presence of UPS Supply Chain Solutions, Inc reflects Goodyear's role as a logistics hub within the Phoenix metropolitan area. UPS's supply chain operations represent last-mile delivery and fulfillment infrastructure critical to e-commerce distribution. Layoffs in this sector indicate either automation of sorting and handling functions or reduced delivery demand volume. ABM Industry Group, Inc, a facility services contractor, likely experienced reduced demand as client companies downsized their physical footprints or consolidated office space—a pattern consistent with post-pandemic hybrid work adoption.

Meyer Burger Americas represents advanced manufacturing employment in solar panel production. This 72-worker reduction aligns with the solar industry's cyclical nature and sensitivity to federal tax credit policies and financing availability. Solar manufacturing faces intense international competition from Chinese producers and fluctuates with policy changes affecting renewable energy economics.

Historical Trends: Acceleration and Volatility

The temporal distribution of WARN notices in Goodyear reveals three distinct periods. The period from 2009 through 2018 showed minimal disruption, with only one notice filed in 2009 affecting an unspecified number of workers. The 2009 timing, during the immediate post-financial crisis recovery period, likely reflects delayed effects of the housing collapse and recession. Goodyear itself experienced dramatic population growth during the 2010s—the city's population increased from approximately 65,000 in 2010 to 75,000 by 2020—suggesting that employment growth outpaced layoff activity during this decade.

The dormancy between 2009 and 2019 masks underlying labor market dynamics. Goodyear's rapid suburban expansion during the 2010s attracted distribution, logistics, and manufacturing operations seeking affordable industrial real estate and proximity to metropolitan Phoenix. Companies like HelloFresh and Sub-Zero likely established or expanded operations during this period of perceived growth and economic stability.

The transition beginning in 2019 signals a fundamental shift. Notices in 2019, 2020, and 2023 average modest scale, but the twin notices filed in 2025 suggest accelerating disruption. The 2020 layoff likely reflects pandemic-related supply chain disruption or demand shocks, while the subsequent notices in 2023 and particularly 2025 indicate sustained structural pressures rather than temporary cyclical adjustment.

Local Economic Impact: Cascading Effects on Goodyear's Economy

The loss of 1,383 jobs carries profound implications for Goodyear's economic vitality. Assuming average wages of $35,000 to $45,000 across the affected mix of logistics, manufacturing, and retail positions, these layoffs represent $48 million to $62 million in annual wage losses from the affected workers' households. This income destruction ripples through local retail, housing markets, and services sectors as displaced workers reduce consumption.

Goodyear's economy depends significantly on the tax base generated by industrial and logistics employers. The HelloFresh and Sub-Zero facilities represent substantial property tax and payroll tax contributions to municipal coffers. Facility closure or significant workforce reduction directly reduces tax revenue available for municipal services, schools, and infrastructure. The city government may face pressure to reduce services, defer maintenance projects, or increase municipal tax rates to offset lost commercial tax revenue.

The affected workers face substantial individual hardship. Logistics and manufacturing workers typically lack extensive portable skills, making job transitions protracted and often involving wage loss. Arizona's relatively low unemployment insurance benefits—approximately 60 percent wage replacement for most eligible workers—leave displaced workers and families vulnerable to housing instability and reduced economic security. Goodyear's affordability advantage relative to inner Phoenix may be offset by limited alternative employment opportunities for workers with logistics or manufacturing experience.

Housing markets in Goodyear may experience downward pressure. The city experienced rapid residential growth during the 2010s, attracting young families and workers seeking affordable suburban living. Mass layoffs reduce housing demand and may depress property values in neighborhoods surrounding affected facilities. Existing homeowners face potential equity loss, while apartment landlords may experience increased vacancy rates and rental rate pressure.

Regional Context: Arizona's Layoff Landscape

Positioning Goodyear within Arizona's broader economic context reveals both uniqueness and similarity. Arizona has experienced significant manufacturing and logistics employment decline over the past five years, driven by semiconductor supply chain normalization, retail sector consolidation, and manufacturing automation. Phoenix metropolitan area logistics employment peaked around 2021-2022 as pandemic e-commerce demand surge benefited distribution and fulfillment operations. The recent transition to normalized consumption patterns has reduced logistics employment across the region.

Goodyear's concentration of large-scale, single-employer layoffs differs from more diversified metro areas experiencing distributed, moderate job losses. The city's industrial base relies heavily on a small number of major facilities, creating vulnerability to individual company decisions. This concentration risk differs from Phoenix's more diversified economy, which absorbs individual company layoffs without proportional local economic disruption.

Arizona's overall WARN filing trends have remained relatively stable, with annual notices typically affecting 5,000 to 8,000 workers statewide. Goodyear's seven notices affecting 1,383 workers represent approximately 1.7 to 2.8 percent of annual state-level layoff activity, suggesting that Goodyear experiences layoff intensity roughly proportional to its population share but with greater volatility and concentration than the state average.

The acceleration in 2024-2025 notices aligns with broader Arizona labor market cooling. The state's unemployment rate has drifted upward from pandemic lows, and commercial real estate vacancy has increased, particularly in industrial sectors. However, Arizona's continued population growth and housing demand provide offsetting economic stimulus. Unlike regions experiencing population decline and structural economic contraction, Arizona maintains demographic tailwinds that support long-term labor market resilience despite cyclical pressures.

Goodyear's economic outlook depends on whether recent layoff acceleration represents cyclical adjustment or structural employment loss. If the affected facilities represent automated operations or consolidated distribution networks, permanent employment loss may persist despite any eventual economic recovery. Conversely, if layoffs reflect temporary demand disruption or facility relocation rather than closure, workforce rehiring could occur as conditions improve. Local economic development efforts should focus on workforce retraining, business attraction to diversify the industrial base, and retention of remaining major employers through competitive incentives.