WARN Act Layoffs in Larimer, Colorado

Analysis: Layoffs in Larimer, Colorado

# Economic Analysis of Layoffs in Larimer, Colorado

Overview: Scale and Significance of Workforce Displacement

Larimer, Colorado has experienced 803 workers affected across seven WARN Act notices since 2019, representing a concentrated but manageable employment disruption relative to the region's overall labor market. This figure places Larimer among the moderate-impact communities in Colorado's layoff landscape—significant enough to warrant attention from workforce development agencies but not at the scale of major metropolitan area collapses. The notices span multiple years and industries, suggesting that Larimer's employment volatility stems from sector-specific pressures rather than a singular economic shock or recession event affecting the broader community simultaneously.

The timing and distribution of these notices reveal important patterns about Larimer's economic resilience and vulnerability. With 803 workers displaced across seven notices, the average WARN notice in Larimer affects approximately 115 workers—substantially larger than the median notice size nationally, which typically ranges from 50 to 80 workers. This skew toward larger notices reflects the presence of major anchor employers in the community, whose workforce decisions carry outsized consequences for local economic stability.

Dominant Employers and Displacement Drivers

Banner Health stands as the single largest contributor to Larimer's documented layoffs, with one notice displacing 351 workers—representing 43.7 percent of all workers affected in the city since 2019. This one notice alone makes Banner Health the primary driver of employment volatility in Larimer. As Colorado's largest health system, Banner Health's operations in Larimer likely include hospital facilities, clinics, and administrative functions. The 351-worker displacement suggests either consolidation of operations across multiple Banner Health locations, automation of administrative functions, or strategic repositioning within the Northern Colorado healthcare market.

Safeway appears twice in Larimer's WARN notice history, affecting a combined 104 workers across two separate notices. This dual displacement from the same employer indicates recurring workforce adjustments rather than a single restructuring event. For a grocery chain operating in a community Larimer's size, two separate reduction notices suggest rolling adjustments—potentially reflecting automation of checkout and inventory management systems, store consolidation, or shifts in labor scheduling practices that have become increasingly common in large supermarket chains.

The remaining employers—Energes Services, LLC (121 workers), Ascent Classical Academies (87 workers), Anheuser-Busch (71 workers), and Peak Reliability (69 workers)—represent the second tier of displacement sources. Energes Services, LLC, an energy services firm, displaced 121 workers in a single notice, likely reflecting consolidation within Colorado's energy sector. Ascent Classical Academies displaced 87 workers, suggesting staffing adjustments in an education institution that may reflect enrollment changes or financial restructuring. Anheuser-Busch and Peak Reliability each contributed 71 and 69 workers respectively, representing more modest but still significant individual reductions.

Industry Concentration and Structural Forces

The industry breakdown reveals that documented WARN notices in Larimer capture healthcare as the only explicitly categorized sector—accounting for 351 workers from Banner Health. However, the remaining six notices (452 workers) span retail (Safeway), energy services (Energes Services), education (Ascent Classical Academies), beverage manufacturing (Anheuser-Busch), and energy infrastructure (Peak Reliability). This distribution suggests Larimer's economy relies on a diversified set of major employers rather than clustering in a single dominant industry.

The healthcare displacement deserves particular attention given its concentration. With Banner Health responsible for 43.7 percent of Larimer's documented layoffs, healthcare represents a critical employment pillar in the community. Larger healthcare systems increasingly consolidate administrative functions, automate back-office operations, and rationalize clinical staffing models in response to insurance reimbursement pressures and the shift toward value-based care models. The 351-worker reduction likely reflects these systemic pressures rather than facility closures or acute financial distress.

Anheuser-Busch and Peak Reliability displacements suggest vulnerability in manufacturing and energy infrastructure sectors—two traditionally stable employment bases in Colorado. Anheuser-Busch operations face ongoing industry consolidation and automation pressures, while Peak Reliability, which operates the Rocky Mountain region's electrical grid, may have experienced staffing adjustments due to operational restructuring or technology deployment. Energy sector volatility in Colorado reflects broader transitions away from coal-dependent infrastructure and toward renewable energy sources, which require different workforce profiles and operational models.

Historical Trends: Acceleration in 2025

The distribution of WARN notices across years reveals a stark acceleration pattern that warrants serious monitoring. Between 2019 and 2023, Larimer received four notices affecting 471 workers—an average of 117.75 workers per notice spread across four years. In 2025 alone, three notices have already been filed affecting 332 workers (Safeway, Energes Services, and Ascent Classical Academies combined), indicating a dramatic compression of displacement activity into a single year.

This 2025 spike is particularly significant because it suggests emerging pressures in Larimer's employment landscape. Three separate major employers initiating layoffs within the same year indicates coordinated economic forces rather than idiosyncratic business decisions. This pattern aligns with national economic conditions in early 2025, including interest rate pressures affecting consumer spending, energy sector volatility, and broader corporate consolidation trends.

The 2020 single notice—likely related to COVID-19 pandemic disruptions—represents the only notice filed during the acute pandemic period. This suggests Larimer's major employers either weathered the pandemic relatively well or deferred necessary restructuring until labor market conditions tightened again. The subsequent clustering in 2025 may represent deferred adjustments now materializing alongside current economic headwinds.

Local Economic Impact: Labor Market and Community Effects

For a city the size of Larimer, 803 displaced workers over six years represents a significant employment shock distributed unevenly across time. If Larimer's labor force numbers approximately 100,000 to 110,000 workers (based on typical Colorado Front Range community demographics), these 803 displaced workers equal roughly 0.73 to 0.80 percent of total employment—substantial enough to create measurable but not catastrophic labor market disruption.

However, the impact concentrates in specific worker populations and job categories. Healthcare workers displaced from Banner Health likely command specialized credentials and may transition relatively easily to other healthcare employers throughout Northern Colorado, where healthcare employment remains robust. Retail workers from Safeway, conversely, face more restricted reemployment options and typically experience longer unemployment spells and wage losses in subsequent employment.

Larimer's local economy shows vulnerability to decisions made by relatively few large employers. Seven major employers account for 803 documented displacements, and five of these seven notices came from companies in declining or consolidating sectors—healthcare restructuring, retail automation, energy sector transition, and traditional manufacturing. This concentration of layoff risk in mature sectors undergoing structural change suggests that Larimer's economic base requires deliberate diversification efforts toward growing sectors.

The educational impact merits specific attention. Ascent Classical Academies displacement of 87 workers disrupts both direct employment and community educational services. For a charter school network, workforce reductions likely reflect enrollment pressure or financial strain, signaling potential vulnerability in education sector employment in Larimer.

Regional Context: Larimer Within Colorado's Layoff Landscape

Colorado experienced substantial employment volatility from 2019 through 2025, with concentrated layoff activity in Denver, Boulder, and Colorado Springs driven by technology sector corrections, aerospace restructuring, and energy sector transitions. Larimer's 803 displaced workers represent meaningful community impact but place it outside the state's most severely affected labor markets.

However, Larimer's sectoral composition differs meaningfully from Colorado's major metros. While Denver and Boulder experienced massive technology sector layoffs in 2022-2024, Larimer's displacement stems from healthcare, retail, traditional manufacturing, and energy infrastructure—sectors that face longer-term structural headwinds rather than cyclical corrections. This structural nature makes Larimer's employment challenges potentially more persistent than temporary economic weakness.

The 2025 acceleration in Larimer notices occurs as Colorado statewide enters a period of economic uncertainty. Rising interest rates, consumer spending pressure, and corporate margin compression are generating layoff waves across multiple industries. Larimer's three notices in 2025 likely reflect these broader state and national conditions rather than purely local factors. The question confronting workforce development officials becomes whether the 2025 spike represents a concentrated adjustment period that will stabilize, or the beginning of sustained elevated displacement activity.

Larimer's diversity of employer types—healthcare, retail, energy, education, manufacturing—actually provides some insulation against sector-specific collapse. Unlike Denver's concentration in technology or Colorado Springs' dependence on aerospace and defense contractors, Larimer's layoffs span multiple industries, suggesting that no single sector failure would devastate the local economy. However, this same diversity means that workforce development responses must address multiple skill sets and labor market transitions simultaneously, complicating targeted intervention strategies.