Corporate Distress Signals for Investors
Alternative data from 6 cross-referenced federal datasets. Track mass layoffs, SEC restructuring filings, bankruptcy patterns, and workforce distress indicators — before they hit earnings reports.
Why Layoff Data Is a Leading Indicator
60-Day Advance Warning
WARN Act notices are filed 60-90 days before layoffs execute. That's 2-3 months of lead time before restructuring costs hit income statements and earnings calls move stock prices.
Industry Cascade Detection
When multiple companies in the same sector file WARN notices across different states, it signals industry-wide distress — not isolated company problems. Our Industry Domino Index tracks this automatically.
SEC Cross-Reference
We match WARN notices with SEC 8-K filings (Item 2.05 — exit/restructuring costs, Item 2.06 — material impairments). Companies appearing in both datasets have confirmed financial distress, not just headcount adjustments.
Bankruptcy Early Warning
Companies filing WARN notices followed by Chapter 11 petitions exhibit a predictable distress cascade. Our cross-reference identifies companies appearing in both WARN and bankruptcy data.
Companies at Risk — Live Signal
Companies with the highest risk scores based on WARN layoffs, SEC filings, and bankruptcy indicators.
5 Proprietary Signal Indexes
Each signal is computed from cross-referencing 6 federal datasets. No single-source data can match this coverage.
WARN Velocity Index (WVI)
Measures layoff acceleration by state. A rising WVI means layoffs are speeding up relative to baseline — an early signal of deteriorating labor market conditions in a geography.
Workforce Stress Index (WSI)
Composite 0-10 distress score per state: WARN trends, unemployment claims, visa hiring decline, bankruptcy filings, and company concentration. The only index using all 6 datasets.
Talent Displacement Index (TDI)
Identifies companies laying off while simultaneously filing H-1B visa petitions — suggesting workforce restructuring rather than genuine downsizing. A unique corporate behavior signal.
Metro Contagion Score
Detects regional economic distress spreading across unrelated employers in the same metro area. Multiple companies in different industries filing WARN notices = systemic local risk.
Industry Domino Index
Tracks cascading layoffs across states within the same industry. When tech or manufacturing layoffs spread from 3 states to 10, it signals systemic industry distress — not company-specific problems.
Access Distress Signals via API
Integrate WARN layoffs, SEC filings, bankruptcy data, and all 5 signal indexes into your research workflow. JSON API with webhook alerts.
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