WARN Act Layoffs in Coffeyville, Kansas

Analysis: Layoffs in Coffeyville, Kansas

# Economic Analysis of Layoffs in Coffeyville, Kansas

The Scale and Significance of Workforce Displacement

Coffeyville, Kansas has experienced a cumulative loss of 1,282 jobs across ten WARN Act filings since 2003, representing a pattern of substantial workforce displacement that extends across two decades. These figures, while concentrated among a small number of major employers, reflect economic pressures that have periodically disrupted the city's labor market. To contextualize this impact, a loss of 1,282 workers in a community the size of Coffeyville constitutes a significant share of the local employment base, particularly given that individual layoff events at major facilities have often affected hundreds of workers simultaneously.

The ten WARN notices filed represent distinct closure or mass layoff events, each triggering federal notification requirements. This frequency—averaging one notice every two years since 2003—suggests Coffeyville has not experienced a sustained period of labor market stability. Instead, the community has faced episodic but substantial workforce reductions, with certain years witnessing multiple major announcements. The concentration of affected workers among just a handful of employers further amplifies the vulnerability of Coffeyville's economy to decisions made at individual corporate headquarters.

Dominant Employers and the Concentration of Layoff Risk

The layoff landscape in Coffeyville is dominated by three companies, which together account for 1,059 of the 1,282 affected workers—roughly 83 percent of total displacement. Amazon.comKSDC, LLC alone triggered a single notice affecting 634 workers, representing nearly half of all layoffs documented in this dataset. This extraordinary concentration in a single event underscores the dependency risk inherent in communities anchored to large distribution facilities. The Amazon layoff, occurring within the 2023 cohort, represents a contemporary vulnerability in the Coffeyville economy.

Farmland follows as the second-largest source of displacement, with two separate WARN notices affecting 396 workers combined. As an agricultural processing enterprise, Farmland's workforce reductions reflect pressures within the food production and processing sector. The company's need to file multiple notices suggests these were not isolated incidents but rather part of a staged downsizing or restructuring process spanning different time periods.

John Deere (appearing across three distinct notices) affected 29 workers, though the company's actual footprint in Coffeyville includes John Deere Coffeyville Works, which filed a separate notice with zero workers reported. This discrepancy likely reflects administrative or timing differences in how facilities reported their situations. Collectively, John Deere represents the most persistent employer on the WARN list, appearing across multiple years (2003, 2014) and suggesting chronic workforce adjustment rather than isolated events. For a manufacturing-dependent community, the presence of John Deere across the historical record indicates sustained pressure on the industrial base.

Southwire, LLC represents another significant single event, with one notice affecting 181 workers. As a wire and cable manufacturer, Southwire's presence underscores Coffeyville's historical reliance on industrial manufacturing. The remaining employers—Elmore's Grocery (42 workers), Blount International Inc (zero reported workers)—represent smaller-scale or administrative filings.

Industry Composition and Structural Economic Shifts

The industry breakdown reveals a striking limitation in the available data: only two industries are specifically categorized, accounting for just 438 of the 1,282 affected workers. Agriculture comprises two notices and 396 workers, while Retail accounts for one notice and 42 workers. The remaining 844 workers—nearly two-thirds of the total—are unclassified in the industry breakdown provided, though context suggests many derive from manufacturing and distribution sectors.

The documented agricultural displacement reflects broader consolidation and mechanization pressures within food processing. Farmland's 396 workers across two notices indicates the scale at which production agriculture and processing operations adjust workforce levels. These reductions likely stem from automation, facility consolidation, market pressures on commodity prices, or shifts in production location to lower-cost regions.

The retail displacement associated with Elmore's Grocery (42 workers) aligns with national trends in grocery retail, where consolidation, e-commerce competition, and operational efficiency have eliminated traditional supermarket jobs. However, the relatively small scale of this notice suggests it may reflect a single-location closure rather than a chain-wide downsizing.

The unclassified worker reductions—including the Amazon and Southwire events, plus John Deere employment—likely span manufacturing, logistics, and distribution sectors. Amazon's 634-worker reduction represents the distribution and fulfillment center economy, while Southwire reflects industrial manufacturing. John Deere reductions point to farm equipment manufacturing pressures. Collectively, these unclassified workers reveal an economy historically dependent on physical production, material processing, and equipment manufacturing—sectors facing automation, offshoring, and market consolidation pressures.

Historical Trends and Temporal Patterns

Examining WARN notices chronologically reveals a pronounced acceleration in recent years. The period from 2003 to 2014 generated six notices affecting workers at a relatively distributed rate—roughly one notice every two years, with individual events affecting dozens to hundreds of workers. The early 2000s saw John Deere (2003) and Farmland experience initial reductions, followed by smaller events in 2005 and 2006, with another John Deere and Farmland notice in 2014.

The dramatic shift occurs in 2023, when four notices arrived within a single year. This represents a fivefold increase in notification frequency relative to historical baseline patterns. The 2023 cluster includes the massive Amazon (634 workers) displacement alongside three other significant reductions. This concentration suggests either coincidental timing of separate corporate decisions or a response to shared economic conditions—potentially the post-pandemic normalization of e-commerce employment, manufacturing market correction, or regional economic deterioration.

The nine-year gap between 2014 and 2023 might initially suggest economic stability, but the subsequent intensity of 2023 filings contradicts that interpretation. The trendline points toward increasing volatility and risk concentration rather than stabilization. Coffeyville faces not a steady-state employment challenge but cyclical or episodic shocks.

Local Economic Impact and Community Vulnerability

The cumulative loss of 1,282 jobs over two decades represents a significant hemorrhage from Coffeyville's employment base. Even accounting for potential job creation or rehiring elsewhere in the local economy, these WARN-level displacements (affecting 50+ workers per event) indicate structural economic challenges rather than routine labor market turnover.

Communities dependent on manufacturing, food processing, and distribution face particular vulnerability to automation and globalization. When John Deere, Farmland, and Southwire reduce workforce levels, they typically reflect capital investment in automation, production relocation to facilities with lower labor costs, or market-driven contraction. These are not temporary adjustments; they often signal permanent changes in how production occurs.

The Amazon event merits particular attention. While distribution centers represent newer economic development compared to traditional manufacturing, the 634-worker reduction suggests either facility consolidation, technology-driven efficiency improvements in fulfillment operations, or strategic retrenchment. For a community that may have welcomed Amazon as a modern job source, the subsequent large-scale displacement demonstrates that contemporary logistics employment carries similar instability risks to older industrial sectors.

Displaced workers in Coffeyville face challenges common to small Midwestern communities: limited alternative employers of comparable size, wage expectations shaped by lost manufacturing and processing jobs, and potential need to relocate for comparable employment. The multiplier effects ripple through local commerce, housing markets, property tax bases, and municipal services. A loss of 634 jobs from a single employer particularly strains support services, retail, and local government revenue.

Regional and Broader Kansas Economic Context

Coffeyville's layoff pattern reflects broader Kansas economic trends. The state has experienced persistent manufacturing contraction, agricultural consolidation, and retail restructuring. However, Coffeyville's concentration of displacement within a handful of major employers distinguishes its vulnerability from more diversified metropolitan areas.

The presence of Amazon (distribution), Farmland (agricultural processing), Southwire (manufacturing), and John Deere (equipment manufacturing) reflects Coffeyville's historical economic base: logistics nodes, food production, and industrial equipment. These sectors face common pressures—automation, consolidation, and competitive pricing pressure. Kansas lacks the diversified economy of metropolitan areas like Kansas City, which can absorb sectoral shocks through alternative employment sources.

The 2023 acceleration in WARN notices extends beyond Coffeyville; Kansas experienced broader labor market adjustments in that period, though the concentration of four notices within one year in Coffeyville suggests particular vulnerability. Communities without diversified economic bases remain most exposed to single-employer decisions.

Over two decades, Coffeyville has experienced employment volatility that outpaces stability. The recent 2023 clustering of major displacement events suggests the city faces an acute phase of economic adjustment rather than a resolved challenge. Without documented job creation at comparable scales, the cumulative impact of 1,282 lost positions represents a significant economic headwind for community prosperity and workforce stability.