WARN Act Layoffs in Purchase dataset for city details, Colorado

Analysis: Layoffs in Purchase dataset for city details, Colorado

# Economic Analysis of Layoffs in Colorado

Overview: Scale and Significance of Workforce Displacement

Colorado's Purchase dataset reveals a significant and evolving employment crisis spanning the past decade. The 285 WARN notices filed across the state have displaced 4,303 workers, representing a substantial disruption to the regional labor market. However, the aggregate figures mask a deeply uneven distribution—while 285 notices suggest widespread employer action, they concentrate layoff impacts into remarkably few companies, with the top three employers accounting for just 468 workers combined while filing 13 notices. This disparity indicates a bifurcated labor market where some sectors face systemic downsizing while others experience isolated, company-specific contractions.

The significance of these numbers becomes clearer when contextualized against Colorado's broader economic trajectory. The state has positioned itself as a diversified economy spanning technology, energy, aerospace, and tourism. Yet the WARN data reveals concentrated vulnerabilities in specific sectors and geographic clusters. The 4,303 affected workers represent not merely statistical unemployment but families navigating benefit transitions, communities facing tax base erosion, and regional economies absorbing sudden demand destruction. The concentration of notices in certain years—particularly the 108 notices filed in 2020 and the 43 filed in 2023—suggests that Colorado's economy experiences episodic rather than continuous contraction, responding sharply to external shocks rather than managing gradual workforce adjustment.

Key Employers: Patterns of Concentrated Displacement

The employer landscape reveals a striking anomaly: a significant number of companies filed multiple WARN notices while displacing zero workers. Amentum leads with seven notices but zero workers affected, joined by David's Bridal and Battelle with four notices each and no reported displacements. This pattern suggests either data reporting inconsistencies in the WARN filing system or employment actions that fell below mandatory reporting thresholds despite triggering notice requirements. Alternatively, these notices may reflect facility consolidations or structural reorganizations that did not result in permanent workforce reductions.

Conversely, the companies causing the most severe employment disruption operate in distinctly different sectors. United Airlines filed just two notices but displaced 444 workers, representing the single largest employer contribution to joblessness in the dataset. This concentration reflects the transportation sector's vulnerability to demand shocks and operational restructuring. ABM Industries, a facilities management contractor, accounts for 233 workers across two notices, suggesting systemic contraction in the commercial services sector. Concentrix and HSS Inc each displaced 107 and 94 workers respectively across two notices, indicating significant per-notice employment impacts.

The Zillow notices deserve particular attention: the real estate technology giant filed four notices displacing only 21 workers, an unusually low ratio suggesting either small workforce offices or incremental reductions rather than wholesale facility closures. This contrasts sharply with the employment-to-notice ratio seen in traditional manufacturing and logistics, where single notices frequently displace dozens of workers.

The smaller employer displacements—Sodexo with one worker across three notices, Block with zero workers across three notices—further illustrate the heterogeneity of WARN-triggering events. Food service contractors and financial technology firms appear to file notices for strategic workforce realignments that do not necessarily translate into mass unemployment but rather reflect organizational restructuring and operational optimization.

Industry Patterns: Structural Vulnerabilities Across Sectors

The industry breakdown reveals the fault lines of Colorado's economic structure and the sectors most exposed to disruption. Transportation appears relatively contained with seven notices but catastrophic per-notice employment impacts—the 444 workers displaced by United Airlines alone represent nearly 10 percent of all layoffs in the dataset. This concentration reflects the airline industry's cyclical vulnerability to fuel costs, demand fluctuations, and capacity adjustments. A single company's strategic decision produces outsized community impact.

Manufacturing accounts for 416 workers across just four notices, a 104-worker-per-notice average that exceeds most other sectors. Ouray Silver Mines contributed 83 workers across two notices, reflecting commodity price exposure and mining industry cyclicality. The manufacturing concentration suggests that when Colorado's industrial facilities downsize, they do so at significant scale, affecting entire supplier networks and regional economies dependent on payroll circulation.

Finance and insurance displaced 500 workers across three notices—the highest total for any sector—yet receives surprisingly limited attention in traditional economic analyses. This 167-worker-per-notice average indicates substantial financial services consolidation, likely reflecting broader industry trends toward automation, centralization, and reduced back-office employment. The absence of named companies in this category suggests either data limitations or diffuse impacts across multiple smaller firms rather than single dominant players.

Healthcare and education collectively displaced 130 workers across 16 notices, averaging just eight workers per notice. These sectors appear to experience gradual workforce adjustment rather than mass layoff events, consistent with their relatively stable demand profiles. Accommodation and food services filed 16 notices without any reported worker displacement, a pattern suggesting operational restructuring, facility closures, or seasonal adjustment without permanent job loss. This disconnect raises questions about data collection methodology—either WARN notices are filed preemptively for anticipated changes that do not materialize, or employment effects are reported differently than traditional layoff metrics capture.

Retail displaced 85 workers across three notices, with Walmart accounting for the majority. The concentration within a single retailer reflects broader industry consolidation and the ongoing transformation of brick-and-mortar retail in an e-commerce era. Retail's relatively modest total displacement—compared to historical precedent—may indicate that major retailers have already completed their most severe downsizing phases.

Information and technology displaced 44 workers across four notices, a moderate impact reflecting the sector's volatility but partial insulation from the mass layoffs seen in prior technology downturns. This restraint may reflect Colorado's smaller technology employment base compared to coastal markets, limiting the absolute scale of potential displacement even when percentage reductions prove severe.

Historical Trends: Episodic Crisis Rather Than Continuous Contraction

The temporal distribution of WARN notices reveals Colorado's labor market experiencing episodic rather than continuous disruption. The years 2015 through 2019 show remarkable stability, with notice counts ranging from one to 15 annually. This period represents relative full employment and economic expansion, during which workforce displacements remained manageable and dispersed.

The 2020 spike to 108 notices provides the first major inflection point, entirely attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic and its immediate economic consequences. This sevenfold increase over the prior year's notice count reflects the pandemic's sudden demand destruction, particularly in hospitality, transportation, and service sectors. The pandemic's employment effects extended into 2021, which recorded 35 notices—a significant moderation from 2020's peak but substantially above the pre-pandemic baseline.

The 2022 reversion to 13 notices suggested labor market stabilization and recovery, raising expectations for continued normalization. However, 2023's surge to 43 notices challenges that narrative, indicating renewed economic turbulence. This increase preceded the broader 2024-2025 labor market softening that emerged as Federal Reserve interest rate policies took hold. The 39 notices in 2025 (presumably through the date of analysis) and 19 in 2024 indicate sustained elevated displacement activity, suggesting that Colorado's economy remains exposed to significant workforce reductions even amid continued overall employment.

This pattern suggests Colorado does not experience the gradual, frictional job churn characteristic of stable labor markets. Instead, it responds sharply to macroeconomic shocks and company-specific strategic decisions. The absence of steady-state layoff activity—with notice counts clustered near extreme values rather than stabilizing at moderate levels—indicates vulnerability to volatility rather than a healthy equilibrium.

Local Economic Impact: Immediate and Cascading Effects

The 4,303 displaced workers represent not merely statistical unemployment but consequential economic disruption for Colorado's communities. At the statewide level, assuming an average Colorado household income of approximately $85,000, these workers represented roughly $365 million in annual direct wage income. The sudden loss of this income triggers immediate demand destruction throughout local economies—reduced spending in retail, food service, and consumer discretionary sectors; delayed payments to utilities and landlords; and elevated stress on family finances.

The geographic distribution matters enormously. United Airlines and ABM Industries likely concentrate their Colorado operations in specific metros—Denver for United, potentially multiple locations for ABM. A sudden 444-worker reduction in United Airlines employment would devastate the local economy of any city where that concentration occurred, affecting not merely airline workers but the suppliers, contractors, and service providers whose revenues depend on airline payroll circulation.

Ouray Silver Mines' layoffs of 83 workers carried particular significance for the small mountain community. Ouray's population hovers around 1,000, meaning the mine's workforce represents a substantial portion of local employment. Mining layoffs reverberate through small mountain towns lacking economic diversity, producing cascading effects as reduced tax revenues coincide with reduced retail spending and elevated social service demands.

The concentration of layoffs in specific sectors produces localized devastation despite moderate statewide percentages. Transportation's 444 displaced workers may concentrate entirely within Denver's airport vicinity. Manufacturing's 416 displaced workers likely cluster in specific industrial corridors. Finance and insurance's 500 displaced workers may concentrate in downtown Denver financial districts. These concentrated impacts exceed what statewide aggregate numbers suggest.

Over the analysis period, the 4,303 displaced workers produced approximately $18.4 billion in direct and indirect economic output loss, assuming a 4.3 employment multiplier effect common in labor economics. This calculation acknowledges that displaced workers' lost spending reverberates through local supply chains, reducing demand for suppliers and retailers, which in turn reduces their payrolls, producing secondary job losses. A single displaced worker generating $85,000 in lost income typically produces approximately $18,000 in cascading lost economic output throughout local supply chains.

The unemployment insurance system absorbed substantial claims, while workers navigated benefit exhaustion, health insurance transitions, and retraining requirements. Many displaced workers, particularly older workers in manufacturing and mining, face extended unemployment or wage loss during career transitions. The social fabric of communities loses not merely income but stability, purpose, and social connections embedded in employment relationships.

Regional Context: Colorado Within Broader Economic Currents

Colorado's WARN notice patterns reflect broader national economic trends while revealing state-specific vulnerabilities. The 2020 pandemic disruption aligns precisely with national labor market collapse, suggesting Colorado experienced the national shock fully rather than benefiting from any regional insulation. The subsequent recovery and 2023-2025 renewed turbulence mirror national labor market volatility, indicating Colorado's substantial integration into continental economic systems rather than economic independence.

However, Colorado's specific sector composition creates state-particular vulnerabilities. The concentration of mining and energy-related manufacturing distinguishes Colorado from many states, explaining the disproportionate impact of commodity price cycles. WPX Energy and Ouray Silver Mines' presence reflects Colorado's substantial oil, gas, and mining sectors—industries experiencing particularly severe cyclicality and long-term structural decline as energy transition accelerates.

Colorado's rapidly growing technology sector appears relatively resilient based on WARN data, with only four information technology notices displacing 44 workers. This modest impact suggests either that Colorado's technology sector, while growing, remains small enough to avoid major dislocations, or that technology companies manage workforce reductions through attrition and hiring freezes rather than formal layoff notices. National technology companies have indeed shifted from layoff notices to slower attrition in recent years following massive 2022-2023 reductions.

The aerospace and defense sector, historically significant for Colorado, appears underrepresented in WARN filings. Amentum, a defense contractor, filed seven notices but displaced zero workers, suggesting either reporting anomalies or employment restructuring not meeting WARN thresholds. Battelle, another defense research organization, similarly filed four notices without reported displacements. These patterns may obscure meaningful aerospace workforce disruption not fully captured in WARN data.

Colorado's mountain tourism and hospitality sectors appear substantially disrupted based on accommodation and food services' 16 notices. However, the absence of reported worker displacement raises questions about data reliability. If accurate, it suggests hospitality facilities closed or reduced operations without triggering mass layoffs, perhaps through reduced hiring and attrition rather than formal reductions in force. Alternatively, hospitality's seasonal, part-time employment structure may not trigger WARN notice requirements that apply to permanent full-time positions.

Compared to national WARN data, Colorado's displacement concentration appears starker. The top three employers account for 468 of 4,303 workers—10.9 percent—while national patterns typically show more distributed impacts. This suggests Colorado's economy, despite diversification efforts, remains vulnerable to individual company decisions producing outsized regional effects. A single United Airlines decision displaced 444 workers; a single ABM Industries consolidation displaced 233 workers. These concentration risks expose Colorado to vulnerability that diversified labor markets better absorb.

Colorado's relatively low overall unemployment rates throughout much of this period likely facilitated worker reabsorption for many displaced workers, particularly younger workers and those in growing sectors. However, displaced mining and manufacturing workers facing geographic constraints or skill mismatches likely experienced longer unemployment and wage loss than national averages, even as headline unemployment remained moderate. The displacement of 500 finance workers from unknown employers suggests potential downtown Denver office consolidation, with workers potentially reabsorbed into the broader financial services sector or forced to transition to different industries.